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  • 传染的金融病，次级债流感

    2007-08-24

    [2007.08.16]Financial contagion Mortgage flu 传染的金融病，次级债流感


    Financial contagion  Mortgage flu
    传染的金融病，次级债流感

    Aug 16th 2007 | NEW YORK
    From The Economist print edition

    Turmoil in America's mortgage market has spread far and wide
    美国次级债危机已经广泛蔓延

    IF THE speed with which financial-market turmoil has spread around the world has been unnerving, fears of an even more alarming form of contagion are surfacing: it may undermine America's economy.
    如果遍及全球的金融市场动荡速度已经让人恐慌了，那么一种更让人担心的恐慌蔓延形式正在浮出水面：这种恐慌将会危及美国经济。

    The health of the world economy is the main source of optimism at a time of unstable markets. But Hank Paulson, America's treasury secretary, acknowledged this week to the Wall Street Journal that the turmoil would “extract a penalty on the growth rate” of the American economy.
    在一个多变的市场时期，世界经济的健康是乐观主义的主要信心来源。但是美国财政部长Hank Paulson知道这个星期对于华尔街来说，动荡可能“向美国经济增长率开出一张罚单”

    Stockmarket investors are already worried that problems in the housing market are sapping the economy's vigour. This week Wal-Mart, the world's biggest retailer, added to fears when its boss said that American consumers—who have helped underpin economic growth—face pressures and that the retailer's profits this year would suffer. Its share price duly tumbled on August 14th, helping to drag down the market. Sagging confidence, as a result of falling markets and troubles in the banks, would only make matters worse.
    证券市场的投资者们已经担心房地产市场的问题正在消耗美国经济的元气。这个星期当世界最大的零售企业沃尔玛的老板说有力支撑美国经济增长的的消费者面临压 力，而沃尔玛今年底利润会下降的时候，世界最大的零售商也加入到了恐慌的行列。同时8月14日沃尔玛的股价也下挫，顺带拖累了市场。市价下跌和银行问题不 断导致了市场信心下跌，这只能让经济形势更糟。

    The problems are not confined to America. Subprime mortgage losses have hit bank shares and stockmarkets around the globe. Fear that tighter debt markets will inhibit leveraged buyouts that pushed share prices higher in the first half of the year has cast a shadow over the world's stockmarkets. Volatility, which still reflected complacency in the American stockmarket many months after the subprime problems erupted, now registers something approaching panic (see chart).
    问题不仅局限于美国。次级债损失打击银行股价和世界证券市场。对于愈加紧缩的债券市场为了防止上半年推高股票价格而禁止负债收购的担心，已经为全球证券市 场制造了阴影。次级市场问题爆发以后几个月仍然反应公众对美国证券市场信心的波动性，现在也显示有些指标临近恐慌。（图---芝加哥波动率指数）



    As margin calls have forced hedge funds to raise cash, that has often meant purging their most liquid assets, such as oil. Speculative selling, as well as fears about the health of the American economy, have dragged oil prices well below their peak of $79 per barrel in late July. The Economist's metals index is 14%
    below its highs in May.
    当追加保证金通知已经强迫对冲基金增加现金，这经常意味着要求它们出售例如石油等大部分流动资产。投机性抛售和对美国经济形势的担心已经使油价从七月末的79$大幅降低。经济学家的金属价格指数低于它五月份的14%。

    Shares in Asian banks, such as Mizuho and Australia's Macquarie, have had a miserable month, pushing down the region's stockmarkets. On August 15th Basis Capital, an Australian hedge- fund manager, said losses at one of its funds may top 80%. A day later, shares in RAMS, one of the country's mortgage lenders, tumbled 60% after it sought emergency funding.
    就像日本的瑞穗和澳大利亚的麦格理已经有了悲惨的一个月，在亚洲银行类股票打击了该地区的证券市场。8月15日澳大利亚的对冲基金Basis Capital经理说他损失最多的一支基金可能达80%。同日晚些时候，澳大利亚的抵押贷款机构RAMS在其寻找应急基金以后股价下挫60%。

    The market turmoil has even extended into what are meant to be the safest—nay, dullest—corners of the investment universe. On August 14th Sentinel Management Group, which invests on behalf of traders in conservative investments in the money market, attempted to halt withdrawals because of the market turmoil. “We had previously thought that the market would return to some semblance of order and that our clients would not join in the panic. Unfortunately, this has not been the case,” it complained.
    市场的动荡甚至延伸到了本应该安全的投资领域的角落。在8月14日，基于客户利益在金融市场做稳健投资的Sentinel Management Group，由于市场动荡，试图阻止客户大量撤回资金。它抱怨：“我们曾经以为市场可能回到某种表面的秩序，这样我们的客户可能就不会加入到恐慌的行列 中。不幸的是，事实不是这样。”

    Similarly, there has been pain in some “enhanced cash funds”—in effect, money-market funds catering to institutional investors that can invest part of their portfolios in asset-backed securities. The flu has battered down even the hardiest parts of the immune system.
    一些“增强现金基金”也有类似的苦恼——结果，货币市场基金能够通过投资部分的利润在资产证券化上迎合机构投资者。这“流感”甚至已经破坏免疫系统最强大的部分了。                       

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