《The Economist》《经济学人》中文版

Brazil's energy policy

巴西的能源政策

Scarcity in the midst of surplus

盈中有缺

Aug 16th 2007 | PORTO VELHO （波多韦柳，朗多尼亚Rondônia州首府）

http://www.economist.com/world/la/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9660102

Thanks partly to ethanol from sugar cane, Brazil aims to be an energy superpower. But can it keep its own lights on?

巴西志在成为超级能源大国，这多少要归功于从甘蔗中提取的酒精，但是巴西自己的灯能一直亮着吗？

Corbis（图片来自Corbis）

THE president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has just returned from a five-country tour taking in Mexico and Central America, where he touted Brazil's claims to be an energy superpower. Blessed with sunshine, watered by huge rivers and close to self-sufficiency in oil, Brazil's energy potential is indeed enormous. But for various reasons, ranging from government lethargy to environmental lobbies, it runs a serious risk of energy shortages at home.

巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦（Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva） 刚刚结束了对拉美五国的访问回国，在此期间他大力宣扬了巴西要成为超级能源大国的主张。上天赋予的灿烂阳光、壮观大河提供的充足水源，以及几近自给自足的 石油，这些确实都令巴西的能源潜力巨大。但是，从政府的昏昏噩噩到环境保护者的游说，多种原因使巴西国内面临能源短缺的严重危险。

Acende Brasil, an electricity-industry body, predicts a 28-32% chance of blackouts by 2012 if the economy grows at 4.8% a year (the government's forecast is 5%). Officials dismiss this as alarmist. But Lula is worried enough to have attended a recent meeting of his for the first time.

电力行业机构Acende Brasil预测，如果经济以每年4.8%（政府的估计是5%）的速度增长，那么到2012年巴西发生大停电的机会将高达28-32%。官员们都认为这是杞人忧天拒不接受，但是卢拉对此十分担心，并且破例第一次参加了巴西国家能源政策委员会（National Energy Policy Council）的最近一期会议。

Even if economic growth disappoints, power could still run short. At present, four-fifths of Brazil's electricity comes from hydroelectric dams. But at times of high demand or low rainfall, hydropower needs topping up with thermal supplies, mostly natural gas. About half of the natural gas consumed in Brazil comes from Bolivia. Relations between the two countries have been tense since Bolivia declared the nationalisation of the Bolivian operations of Petrobras, Brazil's state-owned oil and gas company, last year.

即使经济的增长速度未能如愿，电力依然会出现短缺。目前，巴西五分之四的电力来自水力发电站，但是在电力需求高或降雨量较少时，必须为水力发电机提供充足的热能，这其中主要是天然气。巴西所消耗的天然气中大约有一半来自玻利维亚，而自从去年玻利维亚宣布对Petrobras（巴西国家石油和天然气公司）在玻境内的运营实行国有化以来，两国关系就一直是箭在弦上。

[译注：2006年5月1日，玻利维亚总统莫拉莱斯派遣军队接管玻利维亚境内所有的天然气田（包括Petrobras旗下的两座炼油厂），宣布对油气产业进行国有化改造。]

Petrobras has also had problems in ensuring consistent production from its gasfields at home. This month the company admitted that there would be a shortfall in promised deliveries, earning a fine of $90m from the electricity regulator. Uncertainty over future gas supplies meant that at a government auction for new electricity-generation plants held last month only oil-fired projects were proposed.

Petrobras的问题不止于此，它还要确保巴西国内气田能够保持稳定的生产。该公司本月承认，它们无法实现所承诺的供电量，为此要承担电监局处以的9千万美元罚金。由于对未来天然气供应失去信心，在上月举行的新发电厂政府拍卖会上，只有以石油为燃料的发电厂得到了提名。

The government's hopes are pinned on two big projects, both of which have their critics. It recently gave the go-ahead for a third nuclear reactor at Angra dos Reis. Even more controversially, Ibama, the environmental agency, has given approval for two new dams on the Madeira river in the state of Rondônia.

巴西政府把希望错误地放在两个大项目上，这两个项目均已遭到了批评。不久前，该国恢复了在安格拉（Angra dos Reis）建造第三个核反应堆的计划。而更具争议的是，巴西环境保护机构Ibama（巴西环境与可再生资源委员会）竟然批准了在朗多尼亚州（Rondônia）的马代拉河（Madeira）上建造两个新水坝。

Supporters point out that the two dams will flood an area only one-sixth as large as that inundated by the giant Itaipu dam. But because of their modern turbines, and the strength of the Madeira's flow, they will generate electricity equal to 8% of Brazil's current output.

拥趸们指出，与巨大的Itaipu水坝相比这两个水坝的泄洪区面积仅为前者的六分之一，但是由于采用了现代化涡轮机，加上马代拉河的汹涌水流，两水坝的发电量将达到巴西目前电力产出的8%。

Opponents predict that the turbines will silt up and that the dams will produce only half the energy advertised. Wesley Ferreira Lopes, of the Movement for Dam Victims, claims that 5,000 families, rather than the official estimate of 900, will be displaced by the dam. His group promises an “uprising” to block the scheme.

而反对者们则预言，两个水坝的涡轮机将会被淤泥充塞，而其发电量仅为其宣传的一半。Movement for Dam Victims（水坝受害者运动）团体的Wesley Ferreira Lopes宣称，建造水坝将令5千家庭背井离乡，而非官方估计的9百，该团体誓言要发起一场“起义”以阻止这项计划。

If all goes to plan, the Madeira dams should be completed by 2012. But Roberto Smeraldi, of Friends of the Earth, says that every dam project in Amazonia has run between 60% and 120% over its planned construction time. The backup plan is to add thermal energy until the dams can be finished. But from where?

如果一切都能按部就班，马代拉水坝应于2012年竣工，不过地球之友（Friends of the Earth，著名的非政府环境组织）的Roberto Smeraldi指出，亚马逊河上每一次的水坝建设项目都未能在其计划时间内完成，均超出了60%到120%，而后续的计划就是增加热能直至水坝建成，但是热能从何而来？

Bolivian gas might have been an option. But, because of the nationalisation, Bolivia may struggle to expand output, despite a deal this month under which Venezuela will invest $600m. Bolivia is committed to expanding exports to Argentina, rather than Brazil. And Bolivian officials are furious about the Madeira dams. They claim these will raise water levels in their country, perhaps encouraging malaria and displacing families and wildlife. After a meeting on August 3rd in São Paulo, Bolivia's deputy environment minister threatened “all necessary measures, legal and international” if the dams go ahead. That could include reducing gas exports.

玻 利维亚的天然气本来是个选择，但是因为玻要实现资源国有化，它可能会努力扩大产出，尽管本月它还与委内瑞拉签署了一份协议，其中委将注资６亿美元。玻利维 亚的目的是扩大对阿根廷的出口，而不是巴西。另外，玻政府对马代拉水坝计划是大发雷霆，声称其国内的水位会因此上升，从而可能令疟疾横行，百姓和动物们放 弃家园。在８月３日于巴西圣保罗的一次会议之后，玻环境副部长威胁说，如果水坝项目一意孤行，他们将采取“所有必要的措施，合法的而且国际性的措施”，这 其中就可能包括减少天然气出口。

Brazil insists it has a sovereign right to go ahead with the dams. Evo Morales, Bolivia's president, should stop “sticking his beak” into Brazil's affairs, says Ivo Cassol, the governor of Rondônia.

巴西则坚持认为，对水坝计划它拥有完全独立的权利，朗多尼亚州长Ivo Cassol表示，玻总统埃沃·莫拉莱斯（Evo Morales）不应该再“把他的鼻子”伸入巴西的事务中。

Another possibility is to generate electricity from sugar cane, in conjunction with ethanol production, though the technology for this is still fairly new. Using sugar cane, Brazil produces far more ethanol per hectare, with fewer emissions, than the United States does with its corn-based equivalent. McKinsey, a consultancy, reckons that if the area under sugar cane were doubled, fertiliser applied and farming mechanised, Brazil's ethanol output would increase from 17 billion litres (4.5 billion American gallons) a year today to 160 billion litres by 2020.

另一个选择是用甘蔗来发电（这源自从甘蔗中提取酒精），尽管这项技术才刚刚起步。利用甘蔗，巴西每公顷的酒精产量要远远超过美国同等面积的玉米酒精产量，而排放物则减少。据麦肯锡咨询公司（McKinsey）估计，如果甘蔗种植面积加倍，并施以充足的化肥和进行机械化耕作，巴西的酒精产量将从现在每年的170亿公升提升至2020年的1600亿公升。

But ramping up ethanol production has drawbacks. Although very little of Brazil's sugar cane is grown in the Amazon region, expanding the crop could put pressure on the rainforest nonetheless, by pushing ranching and soyabean farming farther into the interior.

Environmentalists argue that Brazil could do much more to conserve energy. But that is a long-term effort. The country faces difficult trade-offs between development and the environment. As Jerson Kelman, the electricity regulator, notes, it would be ironic if green opposition to dams means that Brazil ends up using more oil to keep the lights on.