<<  在俄罗斯做生意 | 首 页 | 耶稣会在哪儿排队？  >>

  • 2007巨无霸汉堡指数

    2007-07-11

    [2007.07.05]The Big Mac Index: Sizzling

    The Big Mac Index
    巨无霸汉堡指数

    Sizzling
    新鲜出炉
    Jul 5th 2007
    From The Economist print edition

    Food for thought about exchange-rate controversies
    关于汇率争议思考的食物表现




    AMERICAN politicians bash China for its policy of keeping the yuan weak. France blames a strong euro for its sluggish economy. The Swiss are worried about a falling franc. New Zealanders fret that their currency has risen too far.
    美国的政治家抨击中国实行保持人民币疲软的政策。法国指责坚挺的欧元造成了该国经济的萧条。瑞士民众担心法郎的币值下跌。新西兰人忧虑本国货币升值过度。

    All these anxieties rest on a belief that exchange rates are out of whack. Is this justified? The Economist's Big Mac Index, a light-hearted guide to how far currencies are from fair value, provides some answers. It is based on the theory of purchasing-power parity (PPP), which says that exchange rates should equalise the price of a basket of goods in any two countries. Our basket contains just a single representative purchase, but one that is available in 120 countries: a Big Mac hamburger. The implied PPP, our hamburger standard, is the exchange rate that makes the dollar price of a burger the same in each country.
    所有这些焦虑都是因为人们相信汇率出现了混乱。这合理么？《经济学人》杂志编制的“巨无霸汉堡指数”提供了一些答案。该指数是一份表现各国货币与合理价值之间差距的轻松指南。其基础是购买力平价理论，该理论认为，汇率应保持一篮子消费品在任何两个国家里价格相同。我们的篮子里仅有一件具有代表性、却在120个国家有售的商品：巨无霸汉堡包。暗含其中的购买力平价理论、我们的汉堡标准是让汉堡的美元价格在每个国家都保持一致的汇率。

    Most currencies are trading a long way from that yardstick. China's currency is the cheapest. A Big Mac in China costs 11 yuan, equivalent to just $1.45 at today's exchange rate, which means China's currency is undervalued by 58%. But before China's critics start warming up for a fight, they should bear in mind that PPP points to where currencies ought to go in the long run. The price of a burger depends heavily on local inputs such as rent and wages, which are not easily arbitraged across borders and tend to be lower in poorer countries. For this reason PPP is a better guide to currency misalignments between countries at a similar stage of development.
    多数国家以汇率为基准进行商贸交易。中国的货币是最便宜的。在中国，巨无霸的售价是11元人民币，依照当前汇率，相当于1.45美元，这意味着中国的货币被低估了58%。但是，在中国的批评家摩拳擦掌行将反驳前，他们应当记住，购买力评价指出的是各国货币应发展的长远方向。一块汉堡的价格在很大程度上取决于租金和工资等当地投入，它们不会轻易地遭到跨国套汇，而且在穷国的水平则更加低下。因此，购买力平价更好地指出了处于相似发展阶段的国家之间存在的货币偏差情况。

    The most overvalued currencies are found on the rich fringes of the European Union: in Iceland, Norway and Switzerland. Indeed, nearly all rich-world currencies are expensive compared with the dollar. The exception is the yen, undervalued by 33%. This anomaly seems to justify fears that speculative carry trades, where funds from low-interest countries such as Japan are used to buy high-yield currencies, have pushed the yen too low. But broader measures of PPP suggest the yen is close to fair value. A New Yorker visiting Tokyo would find that although Big Macs were cheap, other goods and services seemed pricey. A trip to Europe would certainly pinch the pocket of an American tourist: the euro is 22% above its fair value.
    最被高估的货币出现在欧盟地理边缘的富裕国家：冰岛、挪威和瑞士。确实，几乎所有富国的货币和美元相比都很高昂。日圆是例外情况，其低估率为33%。这种异常状况似乎解释了人们的忧虑，即投机性的融资套利交易把日圆压制得过低了。融资套利交易是指利用日本等低利率国家的资金购买高收益货币的活动。但是，更广泛的购买力平价措施表明日圆接近合理价值。一位游览东京的纽约市民会发现，尽管巨无霸价格便宜，但其它的产品和服务却显得昂贵。一次欧洲游必定会把美国游客的钱包榨干：欧元比合理价值高出22%。

    The Swiss franc, like the yen a source of low-yielding funds for foreign-exchange punters, is 53% overvalued. The franc's recent fall is a rare example of carry traders moving a currency towards its burger standard. That is because it is borrowed and sold to buy high-yielding investments in rich countries such as New Zealand and Britain, whose currencies look dear against their burger benchmarks. Brazil and Turkey, two emerging economies favoured by speculators, have also been pushed around. Burgernomics hints that their currencies are a little overcooked.
    瑞士法郎和日圆一样，对外汇赌客而言是低回报率的货币，其低估率为53%。法郎最近出现的币值下跌是融资套利交易者推动一国货币接近汉堡标准的罕见实例。其原因是该国货币被借入并售出，用以购买新西兰和英国等富裕国家的高收益投资基金。这两个国家的货币与各自的汉堡基准相比显得昂贵。巴西和土耳其这两个备受投机商青睐的新兴经济体也遭到操控。汉堡经济学暗示，两国的货币被略为高估。

    随机文章：


    收藏到：Del.icio.us




    引用地址：
    发表于10:42 | 编辑 | 继续话题 | 转发 | 分享　0