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  • 通货膨胀的核心准则

    2007-06-26

    [2007-6-21]Inflation:Core principles

    Inflation
    通货膨胀

    Core principles
    核心准则              （风雨兼程之毛毛丁丁译）

    Jun 21st 2007
    From The Economist print edition

    Bond investors are living in a world where nobody eats or drives
    债券投资者生活在一个无人吃饭出行的世界


    DO THE financial markets believe that the typical American consumer is on a permanent fast, walks everywhere and survives without heating or air conditioning? After a jittery few weeks, bond markets rallied on June 15th on news that America's core consumer price index rose by just 0.1% in May. The data were warmly greeted by stockmarkets too. The Dow Jones index rose by 86 points on the day. Investors decided that the absence of price pressures would calm the nerves of rate-setters at the Federal Reserve, who have been worrying out loud about “elevated” core inflation.
    典型美国消费者长期滴食不进，步行去他们要去的地方，而且生活的地方没有暖气也没有空调，金融市场能相信这一切吗？经过几周短幅波荡，受美国核心CPI五 月增长仅为0.1%的影响，债券市场止跌回升。这项数据在证券市场也备受欢迎。道琼斯指数当天增长了86点。投资者们确信没有了的价格压力，应该可以舒缓 联邦储备系统那些利率制定者的神经，因为他们一直绞尽脑汁解决不断升级的核心通货膨胀。


    What the markets blithely ignored was the day's bad news. Headline consumer prices rose by 0.7%, the biggest monthly increase for nearly two years. Unlike core inflation, the headline measure includes fuel costs, which rose sharply, as well as food prices. For bond prices to rise on such a big jump in inflation, markets must be placing a great deal of faith in the core index as the true gauge of price pressures. Is that wise?
    当天市场参与者过于乐观以至于根本没有注意到坏消息。整体物价消费增长了0.7%，成为两年内涨幅最高的一个月。与核心通货膨胀不同的是整体物价消费度量 标准包括迅速增长的燃料费以及食品价格。单纯因为债券价格在通胀中暴涨，就为市场核心指标设置犹如真正价格压力标尺的一系列的标准，这明智么？


    The cold-and-hungry index
    “饥寒交迫”的指数

    The lure of core inflation as a barometer is that headline inflation rates tend to be volatile. Last June the annual headline rate in America, pushed up by soaring oil prices, was as high as 4.3%, but by October it had plunged to 1.3%. The rationale for excluding food and fuel is to filter out prices that jump around for temporary reasons, such as the vagaries of the weather or the messy politics of the Middle East. A good core index excludes this noise, leaving only the enduring part of inflation that reflects the weight of spending in the economy.
    核心通货膨胀作为晴雨表，其发展的不稳定预示着整体通货膨胀率的起伏。去年六月，由于飞涨的油价的带动，美国年整体通货膨胀增长高达4.3%，但到十月止 增长率只有1.3%。将食品及燃料费用排除在外，其原理在于可以滤除那些由于临时原因而上涨的价格，此种情况就像是中东阴晴不定的天气和杂乱无章的政治。 而一个良好的核心指标不会出现这些不和谐的声音，只有可以反映经济开销比重的通货膨胀这一不变的部分。


    Despite these statistical merits, there are several reasons not to rely blindly on core measures. First, the elements that the core index excludes are likely to pick up lasting shifts in inflation pressures earlier. Food and petrol are frequent purchases and their prices tend to be less “sticky” than those for more durable goods. Rising retail food prices can sometimes signal general price pressures. They are also a strong influence on perceptions of inflation, because consumers encounter them so frequently.
    尽管这些统计数据对我们有好处，但是还有些原因不是盲目的依赖于核心标准的。首先，那些被核心指标排除的因素很可能比其他因素更早的加速通货膨胀压力的持 久变化。食品和汽油是大家频繁购买的物品，所以他们的价格比起那些耐久品来说相对不稳定。零售食品价格的提高有时则预示着物价的压力。这些因素还很大程度 的影响通货膨胀，因为大家会经常遇到这些问题。


    Second, the core and volatile elements of inflation are not entirely independent. Increases in food and energy costs can squeeze spending on other goods and services, depressing prices and artificially lowering core inflation. That is the reason why Mervyn King, the Bank of England's governor, referred in a speech earlier this month to the practice of excluding price categories as “highly misleading”.
    其次，通货膨胀的核心因素与可变因素在一定程度上是相互依存的。食品与能量开销的增加可以减少在其他物品与服务的花费，降低物价，还可以人工地降低核心通 货膨胀。这就是英国银行管理者默文•金为什么在本月初的讲话中提到排除一些价格种类的做法是“在很大程度上是一种误导”。


    Third, core measures tend to stress the disinflationary supply-side of globalisation, but play down the inflationary pressures on demand. The integration of China and India into the global economy has led to lower prices for manufactured goods, trimming core inflation rates. But there is a sting in the tail: rapid growth in emerging economies has pumped up global demand for primary resources and boosted commodity-price inflation—not just in oil but in food too (see article). When these pressures are sustained, as they have been, core measures will under-represent true inflation.
    第三，核心度量标准趋向于强调通过全球化的减税刺激生产和投资来制止通货膨胀，但是一经需求便会降低通货膨胀压力。中印共同进入全球经济使得手工制成品的 价格下降，并使核心通货膨胀率得以调节。然而，倒霉事在后头：新兴经济的迅速增长增加了全球对主要资源和暴增的日用品价格的不断需求——不仅是油类价格还 有食品价格。这些压力一直以来都存在并将持续下去，这样一来核心标准将会低估真正的通货膨胀。


    The truth is that no index is perfect (there is a long argument to be had about whether housing costs are properly measured in the core number as well). What matters most are what real consumers spend their money on—and how they react to the prices of those things. Core measures are certainly useful if they can efficiently strip out price changes that are likely to prove fleeting, without losing track of underlying inflation. But investors should remember that they are never all you need to know about inflation. Unless, of course, you live in a world without cars, air conditioners and cornflakes.
    事实是没有一项指标是完善的（关于住房成本在核心指数中的测量是否恰当存在着长期争论）。 最重要的问题是真正的消费者把钱花费到了哪里——以及他们对于那些物价有何反应。如果核心措施能够有效地消除那些短暂且有潜在通货膨胀趋势的价格变化，那 么这些措施就一定是有帮助的。但是投资者们要记住：关于通货膨胀，了解这些远远不够。当然，除非你生活在一个没有汽车，没有空调，没有脆玉米片的世界。

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