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  • 印度经济:期待借风而行

    2007-06-13

    [2007-6-9]India's economy: Waiting for the monsoon

    India's economy
    印度经济


    Waiting for the monsoon
    期待季风来临

    Jun 7th 2007
    From The Economist print edition

    The economy continues to overheat despite a rising currency and recent signs of falling inflation
    尽管卢布汇率不断增长，以及最近迹象表明通胀下降，印度经济仍然持续过热
    AFP

    JUDGING by the latest burst of economic euphoria in India you would think that the monsoon had arrived early this year, bringing relief from the country's scorching heat. Indian businessmen and politicians are cheering the latest economic numbers, which appear to show that inflation is falling even as growth remains strong. This, they claim, shows that the risk of the economy overheating has faded. Their glee is premature: India's economy, like Delhi this week, remains far too hot.
    最近印度经济的乐观情绪突然迸发，据此你可能认为今年的西南季风已经早早来临，吹走了印度经济的炙热，人们如释重负。 最近，经济数据显示经济增长依然强劲而通货膨胀不断下降。印度的商人们和政治家们为此而欢呼。 他们声称，这表明了经济过热的风险已经减弱。 不过他们高兴得太早： 印度的经济正像这星期德里的天气依然太过炙热。

    India's GDP grew by 9.4% in the fiscal year ending in March, its fastest rate for 18 years and the second strongest on record. JPMorgan estimates that growth in the three months to March accelerated to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 11.4%. Yet, despite rapid growth, wholesale-price inflation (the measure of prices most closely watched by policymakers) fell to 5.1% in mid-May, down from 6.7% in January and close to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) inflation target of 5% for 2007-08.
    在截至今年三月的财政年度印度的国内生产总值GDP增长9.4%,这是18年来印度最快的增长率，也是世界纪录第二的增长率。 JPMorgan公司估计，截至三月份今年头三个月的经济增长，其速度达到了季节性调整的年增长率11.4%. 虽然经济快速增长，但是其批发价格通胀率（决策者紧密关注的价格度量标准）从1月份的7.6%降为5月中旬的5.1%,已经接近印度储备银行（RBI）2007-08年度5%的通胀预期目标。


    Several economic commentators have concluded that the panic earlier this year over rising inflation was exaggerated and it is now safe for the RBI to ease policy—or at least that there is no need for further tightening. Since January 2006 the RBI has raised its overnight lending rate by one and a half percentage points, to 7.75%. And monetary conditions have been further squeezed by the Indian rupee, which has surged by 10% against the dollar since March (see chart) to a nine-year high.
    一些经济评论家得出结论，今年早期对通胀不断升高的恐慌被夸大了，目前对于印度储备银行RBI采取宽松的策略是安全的，或者至少没有必要采取进一步的紧缩。 自从2006年1月，印度储备银行RBI已经调高其隔夜拆借利率1.5个百分点，达到7.75%. 由于印度卢比对美元汇率自从三月份已经急升10%，达到了九年来的新高，货币环境因而进一步收紧。

    The jump in the rupee reflects an abrupt change in policy by the RBI. Until March the central bank was intervening heavily to hold the currency down. But the large amounts of dollars it was forced to buy were fuelling excessive growth in the money supply and hence inflation. To offset this extra liquidity, the bank “sterilised” the increase in foreign reserves by selling securities to banks. The snag is that sterilisation is expensive because the RBI has to pay much more on the bonds it issues to mop up liquidity than it earns on dollar reserves. A pegged exchange rate also cramped the RBI's room to raise interest rates, because that would attract yet more capital.
    卢比汇率的急升反映了印度储备银行RBI货币政策的突然改变。 直到三月份中央银行一直大力干预以抑制其货币汇率。 但是央行不得不大量买入的美元不断涌进，造成货币供应的过分增长，而发生通货膨胀。 为抵消这些额外的流通，中央银行向商业银行卖出有价证券从而遏制外汇储备的增加。 问题是这种遏制代价昂贵，印度储备银行RBI为消除流通增长而发行的有价债券，其利息远大于美元储备的收入。 印度储备银行RBI的钉住汇率制度也束缚了其上调利率的空间，因为上调利率会吸引更多资金。

    The RBI's job had been made even harder by the government, which last year encouraged capital inflows by raising the ceiling on foreign borrowing by firms, allowing Indian companies to take advantage of lower interest rates abroad than at home. All Asian economies have faced upward pressure on their currencies but, says Rajeev Malik of JPMorgan, India is the only one where the government has foolishly invited more capital inflows. In April the government sought to take some of the steam out of the rupee by allowing Indian firms to make bigger overseas acquisitions. It raised the ceiling for overseas investment to three times an Indian acquirer's net worth, from two times.
    由于去年政府通过提高企业的对外借款限额而鼓励资本流入以利用其比国内更低的利息，印度储备银行RBI的工作变得更加困难了。 JPMorgan的Rajeev Malik说，所有亚洲经济体在流通方面面临越来越多的压力，而印度政府愚蠢引进更多资本流入，是唯一的一个。 4月，印度政府试图利用其卢布的动力，允许印度企业大量举债国外。 提高国外投资限额，从印度让受方净资产的2倍到3倍。

    By abandoning its attempt to hold the rupee down against the dollar, the RBI is now able to regain control over monetary policy and so focus on containing inflation. But exporters are howling about their loss of competitiveness and a fierce debate is raging among economists over what should be done about the currency.
    印度储备银行RBI放弃试图抑制卢布兑美元的汇率，从而能够重新获得对货币政策的控制，并致力于抑制通货膨胀。 但是出口商对于其竞争力的伤失大呼其苦.经济学家关于妥善处理流通的激励争辩风行一时.

    Some argue that India should copy China and continue to intervene heavily to keep its exchange rate cheap. However, Arvind Subramanian, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC, points out that China's ability to sustain its exchange rate stems in part from “financial repression and autocracy”. When China sterilises the monetary impact of rising reserves, its central bank pays interest of only about 2% on the bills that domestic state-owned banks are forced to buy, considerably less than the interest it earns on American Treasury bonds. This makes sterilisation profitable in China (as it is not in India), so it can be sustained for longer.
    有人争辩说,印度应该复制中国的模式,持续有力的干预以保持较低的汇率. 然而,华盛顿哥伦比亚特区DC彼得森国际经济研究所的经济学家Arvind Subramanian指出,中国有能力维持其汇率制度，部分原因是其“金融抑制和集权统治” 中国消除不断增加的外汇储备对其货币流通影响时，其央银发行的债券，其它国有银行必须购买，利息仅为２％,比其所购买的美国债券利息低得多。 这使得消除措施是赢利的（在印度则相反），因而可以持续更久。

    Reversing reforms and shifting back to such financial repression is not a sensible economic strategy for India, argues Mr Subramanian. And since India already has one of the biggest budget deficits among emerging economies (7% of GDP for central and state government), it simply cannot afford to intervene and sterilise on China's scale.
    Subramanian认为，进行相反的改革并退回到如此的金融抑制，这样的经济策略对印度来说不是明智之举。 同时由于印度在新兴经济体中有着最大的预算赤字（中央政府和州政府的预算占国民生产总值GDP的７％）很明显，它不能以中国的规模进行干预和消除外汇储备对货币流通的影响。

    Another big difference is that inflation in India is much higher than it is in China, where consumer-price inflation is running at 3%. Thus even when the rupee's nominal rate against the weakening dollar was held down, India's real exchange rate rose because of high inflation. Goldman Sachs reckons that the rupee is one of the few Asian currencies that is overvalued against the dollar.
    另一大区别是，印度的通胀远高于中国，在中国其消费者物价通胀率是3%。 因此即使卢布对弱势美元的名义汇率下降了，由于高通胀，其实际汇率也是上升的。 高盛银行认为，亚洲货币中很少有兑美元估值过高的，卢布是其中之一。

    In the past couple of weeks the RBI seems to have resumed intervention, with official figures showing another big jump in foreign-currency reserves in late May. This may be in response to government pressure. Others suggest that it is because falling inflation has allowed the bank to shift its attention back to the exchange rate. If so, this may be premature.
    在过去的几个星期中，官方数据显示5月后期外汇储备又一次跃升，印度储备银行RBI似乎再次进行干预。 这可能是对政府压力的响应. 另外一些人暗示,这是因为下降的通胀使得央行有可能把注意力转移到汇率上来. 如果是这样,可能言之过早.

    Chetan Ahya of Morgan Stanley argues that the fall in wholesale-price inflation has been largely caused by three factors: the rise in the rupee, which has trimmed the prices of imported goods; administrative measures, such as a cut in fuel taxes and import duties and a ban on wheat exports; and the “base effect” of some commodity prices being higher a year ago. However, the root cause of inflation is that demand continues to outpace supply.
    摩根士丹利的Chetan Ahya认为，批发价格通胀率的下降主要有三个因素引起：  卢布汇率的上升，消减了进口商品的价格；行政措施像燃油税，进口税的下调，小麦出口的禁止；以及一些日用品价格的“奠基”作用要高于去年。 然而，通胀的根本原因，供不应求，没有改变。

    This is not to deny that India's economic speed limit has increased, to perhaps 7-8%, thanks to stronger investment and economic reforms. But growth has exceeded that limit. The economy still shows alarming symptoms of overheating, such as soaring house prices, credit growth of 28% over the past 12 months and 15%-plus average rises in wages for skilled workers. Industrial capacity utilisation has risen to a record high, and rampant domestic demand sucked in 41% more imports than a year ago in April, pushing the trade deficit to a record level.
    由于更为强劲的投资和经济改革，毫无疑问印度经济增速的限制已经提高，可能达到7-8%。 但是经济增长已经超过这个限制。 经济依然表现出令人担忧的过热现象，例如高居不下的住房价格，过去12个月来28%的贷款增长，技术工人工资平均增长超过15%。 工业生产能力的使用达到创纪录的高度,4月份强劲的国内需求吞掉了比去年多41%的进口，把贸易赤字推上了新的纪录水平。

    Moreover, wholesale prices are not the best measure of inflation. About 40% of the wholesale-price index reflects global commodity prices rather than domestic conditions. India does not publish a national measure of consumer-price inflation, but the average of the rates for industrial, non-manual and agricultural workers is now nudging a worrying 8%.
    此外，批发价格不是通胀程度的最佳度量标准。 大约40%的批发价格指数反映了全球的日用品价格，而不是国内的价格水平。 印度本身没有发行关于消费者价格通胀率的度量标准，但是工业，非体力劳动以及农业劳动者的平均消费价格增长率目前已接近令人担忧的8%.　

    India needs a period of slower growth to reduce these excesses and this requires higher interest rates. Constrained by politicians, the RBI's tightening has been timid. In the past year interest rates have risen by less than the rate of inflation has, so rates have fallen in real terms. Relative to consumer-price inflation, the overnight lending rate of 7.75% is close to zero in real terms. That is much lower even than China's real benchmark lending rate of 3.6% (only China's deposit rates are lower). Indeed, India probably has the lowest real interest rates of any major economy, despite having one of the world's fastest growth rates. Without more tightening, expect the sweltering heat to continue.
    印度需要一个较低水平的增长周期，以减少这些没有节制的增长。而这要求更高的利率。 由于政治家们的牵制，印度储备银行RBI对货币政策的收紧则显得小心谨慎。 过去一年利率的增长低于通货膨胀率的增长，因此利率实际上是负增长。 相对于消费者价格通胀率，7.75%的隔夜拆借利率实际上接近于0。 这甚至远低于中国3.6%的实际基准贷款利率（只是中国的存款利率更低）。 确确实实，虽然印度的增长率是世界最快之一，但是在所有主要经济体中其实际利率可能最低。 如果货币政策不能进一步的紧缩，预计炙热的经济仍将持续。

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