《The Economist》《经济学人》中文版

Global warming
全球变暖
Struggling to save the planet
竭尽全力 拯救地球

May 31st 2007
From The Economist print edition

A new American proposal on combating climate change will not defuse the row over the issue in the run-up to the G8 summit
美国就气候变化的新提议无助于缓和八国峰会前期的口角



AT MOST summits of the Group of Eight, a club where the leading industrialised democracies, plus Russia, mull over global issues ranging from proliferation to money-laundering, the hosts go to great lengths to insulate the delegates from rowdy protests. Next week's pow-wow, which takes place in the serene 18th-century resort of Heiligendamm on Germany's Baltic coast, is no exception. 多数情况下的八国峰会上，由那些发达的工业化民主国家再加上俄罗斯所组成的富国俱乐部总是在无休止地讨论诸如核扩散或是洗钱之类的全球性议题，而峰会主办方们则在竭尽全力地让与会者免受门外抗议者的骚扰。下周的峰会也必将不会例外。届时峰会将在海利根丹姆召开，这是位于德国波罗的海沿岸的一个18世纪宁静的度假胜地。

The government tried to exclude protesters from a zone that extended as far as 10km (six miles) from the elegant classical palace where the grandees will assemble; a court later reduced the cordon to 200 metres from the perimeter fence. But this year, the biggest commotion may occur inside the venue, as leaders debate a common response to climate change.
政府先前划出了一个长达十公里（六英里）的隔离带，以使示威者们远离各国巨头将要碰头的那座优雅的古典式宫殿。后来法庭决定将警戒线范围缩小至距离围栏200米处。然而今年，最大的喧闹似乎将会来自会场内部，因为元首们将会就如何对当今气候变化做出反应而展开争论。

The preparations for the summit, at any rate, have been unusually contentious. Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor, wants the G8 countries to agree that the increase in the world's average temperature due to global warming should not be allowed to exceed 2°C. To that end, she wants them to pledge to cut their 1990 levels of greenhouse-gas emissions by half by 2050. These steps, she hopes, will pave the way for negotiations on a new global pact on climate change; talks could get under way as soon as December. Mrs Merkel has told the German parliament that she is not sure a deal can be reached. She is planning to have lunch with George Bush on June 6th, the opening day of the summit, in the hopes of breaking the deadlock.
目前来看，至少峰会的准备也极富争议。德国总理安吉拉默克尔想要八国集团的成员一致同意由全球变暖引起的升温幅度不应超过2摄氏度。要实现此目标，她想要成员国承诺到2050年时，各国温室气体排放量将减为1990年的一半。她希望此类步骤能为日后就气候改变问题磋商新的国际公约铺平道路。同时她也希望此类会谈能尽快在十二月份展开。默克尔夫人曾告知德国国会她对是否能达成一个共识并无把握。她计划于六月六日峰会开幕当天与乔治布什共进午餐，以期打破目前的会谈僵局。

America is not happy with the notion that it shirks its responsibilities to the planet, but nor does it want to sign up to tough emissions targets. In particular, it objects to rules like those of the Kyoto protocol, the United Nations' treaty on climate change, which restricts emissions from rich countries while allowing those of poor countries to grow unfettered. That would put American firms at an unfair disadvantage to Chinese and Indian ones, the Bush administration says, and would prompt the most polluting industries to move to poor countries. Unlike all other rich countries bar Australia, the United States never ratified the Kyoto protocol, and formally withdrew from it in 2001.
人们对美国的普遍看法是它在逃避对我们星球所应当负的责任，美国对此很不高兴，但它也不想签署同意哪些苛刻的排放标准。美国尤其反对京都议定书之类的条款。京都议定书是一个关于气候变化的联合国条约，它限制了发达国家的温室气体排放量但并没有对发展中国家作任何规定。布什政府声称，此举将使美国公司在与中国及印度公司竞争时处于劣势，同时这将怂恿重污染企业搬迁至发展中国家。美国并没有与其他发达国家为伍，而是和和澳大利亚一样，从未批准过京都议定书，并且于2001年正式从此条约中退出。

As The Economist went to press, Mr Bush was expected to announce a new initiative designed to reconcile those concerns. The American plan involves negotiations between the world's big emitters, including developing countries such as China and India which were not required to cut their emissions under the Kyoto protocol. The aim of the talks would be to set targets by 2008—which, given America's previous hostility to targets of any sort, looks like a concession to the Europeans.
《经济学家》记者出席了布什的新闻发布会，席间布什发起一个新的倡议旨在消除之前人们的忧虑。美国计划号召世界上几大排放国家进行会谈，该会谈包括中国和印度，因为京都议定书中并未要求这两国减少排放量。会谈的目的在于设定2008年所要达到的目标。尽管先前美国极力反对此类目标，但现在看起来他正在与欧洲妥协。


Not everybody's favourite club

The new American initiative seems an admission that its previous strategy has failed. At a conference in Laos in 2005 it recruited Australia, China, India, Japan and South Korea to an outfit with that approach, called the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate. Canada's conservative government toyed with joining the partnership and announced that it would not be able to reduce emissions by as much as it promised at Kyoto. But it recently pledged instead to reduce emissions by a more modest amount by 2020, and says it has no objections to Mrs Merkel's 50% target by 2050.
美国这一新倡议的发出似乎是在承认其先前的战略已失败。2005年，在此倡议下，美国号召澳大利亚，中国，印度，日本和韩国加入到一个叫做亚太清洁发展和气候新伙伴计划的组织。加拿大的保守政府很草率的加入了此伙伴计划，但同时又宣称其难以履行其在京都所做的承诺，即减少温室气体排放量。然而最近，它又作出保证将在2020年之前以较为适当的幅度减少该国的排放量，并声称对默克尔夫人所提议的在2050年之前减半的目标不持异议。

Australia's government, too, seems to be wavering in its opposition to mandatory emissions caps. The opposition, which is ahead in the opinion polls, has promised to sign the Kyoto protocol. In response, the government created a commission to come up with a new approach on climate change; it handed over its conclusions this week. The prime minister is now expected to unveil a more exacting policy based on these recommendations before calling an election later this year.
同样，澳大利亚政府似乎也动摇了其反对强制性排放上限的决心。尽管这一反对立场在民意调查中备受青睐，但是澳政府还是保证将签署京都议定书。同时作为回应，政府设立了一个委员会以研究新方法应对气候变化问题；该委员会本周呈递给政府一份结论报告。目前人们期望总理能够在今年年底竞选之前，根据委员会的建议制订出一份较为严格的政策。

Indeed, world leaders seem to be competing with one another to churn out ever more ambitious targets on global warming. Shinzo Abe, Japan's prime minister, has decided to make climate change one of the centrepieces of his tenure. He too has produced a plan for a 50% cut in global emissions by 2050. Tony Blair, Britain's outgoing prime minister, has an even more ambitious reduction in mind, of 60%. The European Union as a whole has agreed to reduce its emissions by 20% by 2020, and offered to increase the figure to 30% if non-European countries make commitments of their own. Norway, meanwhile, hopes to become the world's first “carbon neutral” country, by reducing its emissions to zero by 2050, or paying for equivalent reductions elsewhere.
实际上，各国首脑似乎在彼此较着劲，争先炮制出更具挑战性的应对全球变暖的目标。日本首相安倍晋三已决定将应对气候变化作为其任期内的中心议题之一。同时他也制订了一份关于到2050年将温室气体排气量减半的计划。英国即将离任的托尼布莱尔首相则有一个更富挑战性的目标，即到2050年时，减少60%。欧盟全体成员国同意到2020年将排放量减少20%，同时声称，如果非欧盟成员国作出相应承诺的话，那么它会将标准提升至30%。同时，挪威希望到2050年时通过将温室气体排放量减为零或偿付其他国家排放量来使本国成为世界上第一个“无碳性气体排放”国家。

All this leaves America with few allies at the G8. Nicolas Sarkozy, France's new president, has urged the Americans not to obstruct attempts to tackle climate change. Even Russia is likely to support Mrs Merkel's stance, since its emissions have fallen dramatically since 1990, thanks to the industrial collapse that accompanied the break-up of the Soviet Union. It also stands to benefit from the trade in credits for emissions reductions allowed under Kyoto.
这一切使得美国在八国集团中的盟友所剩无几。法国新任总统尼古拉斯萨科济敦促美国不要妨碍解决气候变化的进程。甚至俄罗斯也有可能支持默克尔夫人的立场，这是由于苏联解体之后许多工业体系随之崩溃，所以自1990年以来该国的温室气体排放量已大幅减少。同时，在京都议定书的框架下，俄罗斯也从赊购中获利匪浅。

Nonetheless, America is likely to stick to its guns. After all, Mr Bush resisted similar pressure from his friend Mr Blair ahead of the G8 summit in 2005, which also addressed global warming but resulted in only an anodyne statement. Most European governments assume that little progress will be made until a new American administration takes office in 2009.
尽管如此，美国依然固执己见。早在2005年的八国峰会之前，布什就已顶住了来自其盟友布莱尔的相类似的压力。那次峰会的议题同样也是应对全球变暖问题，然而会议最终仅达成了一个无关紧要的协议。多数欧洲国家料想在2009年美国换届之前，此议题难以取得突破性进展。



In the meantime, global emissions continue to grow. Indeed, the growth appears to be accelerating. A study recently published by America's National Academy of Sciences found that worldwide emissions, which had been growing by 1.1% a year in the 1990s, grew by more than 3% a year between 2000 and 2004. That is faster than the most pessimistic projections of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a body set up to make authoritative pronouncements on the science of global warming. It is also faster than economic growth, implying that the world is not just consuming more energy, but also making it ever more dirtily.
然而，同时，全球温室气体排放量依然在攀升。实际上，增长速度在不断加快。美国国家科学院最近的一项研究表明，全球温室气体排放量在九十年代时以每年1.1%的速度增长，然而这一数字在2002至2004年间超过了3%。这一增长率甚至比联合国政府间气候变化委员会（联合国就气候变暖问题所设立的官方测评机构）所作出的最悲观的预测还要高。而且这一速度也高于世界经济的增长速度。这意味着这个世界不仅在消耗着越来越多的能源，也在使它自己变得越来越脏。

Even the G8 members that are enthusiastically embracing ambitious targets are struggling to cut their emissions. Only Britain and Russia are now on target to meet their obligations under Kyoto (see chart). Meanwhile, emissions from India and China have almost doubled since 1990. No wonder the row over the G8's summit communiqué is getting hotter and hotter.
目前甚至那些积极接受挑战性目标的八国集团成员们也正在努力减少本国的温室气体排放量。目前只有英国和俄罗斯能够履行起京都议定书所规定的义务（见图表）。同时自990年以来，印度和中国的排放量几乎已翻了一番。难怪八国集团各国就关于峰会声明的争吵越来越激烈了。