《The Economist》《经济学人》中文版

China's stockmarket
中国股市

Sand in the gears
政府降温

May 31st 2007 | SHANGHAI
From The Economist print edition
译者：优雅的狐狸 yuyafox@gmail.com
出处：eco论坛 http://www.ecocn.org/

A new tax hits the euphoric Chinese bourses
印花税上调，繁荣的股市遭遇突袭

COULD it really be that easy? This week China abruptly raised the “stamp duty” it levies on share purchases. For a day or so, the increase seemed to accomplish what dire warnings by Chinese officials could not—a fall in China's bubbly stockmarket. On May 30th prices on the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 6.5%. But they promptly regained 1.4% by the end of the following day.
真的有那么简单吗？本周，中国突然调高了对股票购买所征收的“印花税”。在大约一天左右的时间里，印花税的提高达到了中国政府的严重警告所没有达到的效果——中国充满泡沫的股市出现下跌。在5月30日，上证综合指数下跌6.5%。不过很快便收复了部分失地，在第二天收盘之时已回涨1.4%。

For months, the authorities have been as eager as any bear for a market decline. In the past jawboning had some effect. But recently a swelling throng of retail buyers, and even many experienced bankers, have felt sure the government would not seriously spoil their party until after the Olympic games to be held in Beijing next summer.
数月以来，当局一直像“熊”一样渴望着市场下跌。在过去，“强烈呼吁”起到了部分作用。不过最近来看，散户投资者甚至还有众多经验丰富的银行家群体不断壮大，他们相信，在将于明天夏天在北京举行的奥运会之前，政府不会真正破坏他们的狂欢。

To support this theory they cite the unwillingness of the authorities to do anything with great bite. Interest rates have been raised twice this year, but not by much. The issuance of new mutual-fund shares was capped in December, but the restrictions ended when share prices dropped in February. There have been threats of a capital-gains tax, and brokers must now tell the hordes of new customers packing into their offices that prices can fall as well as rise. But brokers say that as long as prices go up, their customers do not care. The only message they heed is the one on the tape.
为了支持这种理论，他们引证了当局不愿大力下手的例子。今年以来，利率已经上调两次，但是幅度都不大。新共同基金股份的发行在12月份被叫停，不过当二月份股价下跌之后限制被解除。之前还有过征收资本利得税的威胁，而且现在券商必须告知那些挤进他们办公室里的新顾客，股价能涨就能跌。不过券商称，只要股价在上涨，他们的顾客就不会在意。他们所关注的唯一信息就是那些记录。

The tripling of the stamp tax, to 0.3%, makes the position of regulators abundantly clear. But the duty fails to address why valuations in China have become unhinged. For a market to work effectively it needs information. In China corporate disclosure is weak. There is a desperate need for regulatory pressure to force public companies to say more about what they do and to tell the public, not just a tiny pool of connected investors. Encouraging information, however, is not a Chinese speciality.
印花税上调两倍，达到3%，这使得监管者的立场十分清晰。不过印花税无法解释为何中国股票的估值如此疯狂。市场的有效运作需要信息。在中国，公司信息披露薄弱。对监管压力有迫切需求，以迫使上市公司披露更多关于他们所作所为的信息，并且将其公告于众，而不仅仅是与此相关的投资者这一小群体。然而，鼓励信息并不是中国的专长。

Conversely, China needs fewer regulatory restraints on the investment options available to its citizens. It should allow them to invest more freely abroad, or in commercial paper and bonds. Instead it tries to widen opportunities by encouraging public offerings, priced to jump on issuance. This has dangerously stoked demand.
相反的，对于中国居民所能选择的投资项目来说，中国政府需要放松限制。中国应该允许居民能够更自由地投资于海外，或者是商业票据和债券。相反的，中国试图通过鼓励公共募股来扩宽居民的选择，股价于发行之时大涨。这对需求来说是火上浇油，十分危险。

Suppose the authorities were to find a way to bludgeon the stockmarket, knocking, say, a quarter off share prices. That would inflict misery on the new investor class, and valuations would still not be particularly cheap. The best way to curb the excesses of China's sharebuyers is to give them somewhere else to put their money.
假如当局寻求的是一种打击股市的方法，像是让股价下挫四分之一。这将使新投资者阶层深受痛苦，而且估值依然不会很便宜。抑制中国股民狂热的最好方法是，允许他们将资金另投它处。(yuyafox)

Sand in the gears。本意是在齿轮上撒沙，意为减少动力。
A new tax hits the euphoric Chinese bourses根据国情稍做了修改，旨在突出主题，给人以直观感受。
水平有限，有错误或不当之处在所难免，欢饮任何建议与指正