《The Economist》《经济学人》中文版

Conglomerates
I don't love Jeff
May 24th 2007 | NEW YORK
From The Economist print edition
Should General Electric be broken up?

大企业版块
我不爱杰夫
2007．5.24        纽约
通用电器应该被拆分吗？


POOR Jeff Immelt. Since taking control of General Electric (GE) in 2001, he has hardly put a foot wrong. He has reshuffled his pack of companies, divesting volatile ones and acquiring fast-growing businesses in higher-margin areas such as infrastructure and health care. Recent revenue growth has been zippy, in line with the company's target of two to three times global GDP growth. GE is forecasting profits of close to $23 billion this year, which would be double-digit growth over last year. Most analysts recommend the firm's shares.
可怜的杰夫伊梅尔特。自杰夫伊梅尔特2001年掌管通用电气以来,几乎没有什么决策是失败的。他对公司整个进行了重组, 撤出那些不稳定的行业以取得诸如基础设施和医疗保障等有较高利润领域的快速发展。近期收入的增长很快,达到了通用电器原定的的增长为全球GDP的增长2至3倍的目标。由于较上一年有两位数的增长，所以预计今年通用电器利润为近230亿美元。 多数分析人士亦推荐持有该公司的股票。

But investors have shrugged. GE's share price has risen by 9.6% over the past 12 months, well below the S&P 500's 20% gain. Yet the share price of Siemens, its European rival, has jumped 39% during the same period, despite a corruption scandal (see chart). Mr Immelt's latest deal, the sale for $11.6 billion of GE's plastics unit to SABIC of Saudi Arabia, had little effect when it was announced on May 21st.
但投资者对此却不以为然。过去12个月以来通用电器的股价虽已上升了9.6个百分点，却大大低于标准普尔500的20个百分点的收益。拿通用的欧洲竞争对手西门子公司来比，尽管遭遇了腐败丑闻，其股价同期依然增长了39个百分点(见图)。甚至在5月21日伊梅尔特宣布的将通用的塑胶部门以116亿美元的价格出售给沙特阿拉伯的沙特基础工业公司的最新交易也没有对股价的上涨带来积极的影响。

Why the subdued performance? The “I love Jack” premium baked into the share price under Mr Immelt's celebrated predecessor, Jack Welch, has long gone. It is harder to turbo-charge the shares of a firm that is already performing well. The benefits of diversification look less compelling when markets are buoyant. And GE's size means it has not benefited from the takeover speculation that has lifted other firms' share prices.
为什么会有如此糟糕的表现？像在伊梅尔特的著名前任杰克韦尔奇时代那样，随着股价上扬出现“我爱杰克”口号的事情早已远去。可以说让一家表现良好的公司的股价继续大幅上扬较原来更为艰难。在市场活跃的时候，多样化战略给通用电器带来的好处并不是十分明显。 而通用电气的规模意味着它并没有从抬高了其他公司股价的收购交易中获利。

Some believe that GE would be more valuable if it broke itself up, or at least became more focused. Last month analysts at Citigroup proposed that it ought to spin off three big assets: NBC Universal, its media unit; its consumer-finance arm; and its property business. That would leave behind a simpler firm with a sharper focus on infrastructure, where Mr Immelt has assembled a powerful array of businesses to address the long-term needs of developing economies.
有些分析家相信如果通用电器可以对自身进行拆分，那么他将变得更有价值，或者说至少变得业务更加集中于某个领域。上个月花旗集团的分析师建议应将通用电器分拆为三大产业: 媒体部分——NBC环球公司、消费信贷部分和房地产业务。这将留下一个更加集中业务于基础设施、更加简捷的公司。而目前通用已经集中了一支精明强干的队伍来处理长期发展的需要。

For the moment, GE is sticking to its many guns. Its ability to develop talented managers and run businesses well is not in question. It is unsentimental about getting rid of assets if their performance is not up to scratch—both Mr Immelt and Mr Welch once worked in the plastics unit. And it is keeping shareholders sweet with steadily rising dividends and a share-buyback programme.
就目前而言,通用仍然固执自见。通用培养优秀管理和善于经营的能力是毋庸质疑的。在抛弃那些经营业绩没有达到标准的产业方面，通用可以算得上无情和果断，即使是伊梅尔特和韦尔奇都工作过的塑料行业也不能幸免。目前他这样做就是为了通过稳健增加的股息和股票回购计划来保持股民的满意度.

But today's frantic dealmaking means conglomerates such as GE find it harder to argue that they are worth more than the sum of their parts. GE's plastics unit fetched over $1 billion more than the highest estimate of its value. Mr Immelt got an excellent price—but it rather awkwardly suggests that GE might be worth far more if it were broken up.

但如今疯狂的交易行为意味着诸如通用电器这样的大企业也很难说自身价值高于部分相加之和。通用电器塑胶部分成交额超过了10亿美元,这远远超过了估计中的最高价格。伊梅尔特获得了一个很好的成交价格——但这也可能暗示着如果通用电器拆分的话自身将更加值钱。