《The Economist》《经济学人》中文版

Zimbabwe's hard sell
津巴布韦的强行推销

A warm welcome but little money
欢迎虽热烈，要钱却没有
Jun 18th 2009
From The Economist print edition

So far Morgan Tsvangirai’s ground-breaking tour of America and Europe has brought plaudits rather than cash for Zimbabwe’s battered economy
迄今，摩根.茨万吉拉伊的欧美破冰之旅尽管赢得阵阵喝彩，却并未为津巴布韦屡遭重挫的经济带来金援

IT IS Monday, so it must be Berlin. Or is it Stockholm? Morgan Tsvangirai may be forgiven for occasionally losing track, so crammed has his schedule been on his first official tour abroad as Zimbabwe’s prime minister. On June 15th it was the turn of Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel (pictured above), to meet him in Berlin, after he had spent a few days in Washington, DC, where he met President Barack Obama. Then he headed north to meet the Swedes, before flying across to Norway. He was also due to meet the leaders of Belgium, Denmark and France, plus officials from the European Union. Finally, on June 19th, he is to visit Britain for several days to hobnob with the prime minister, Gordon Brown, plus various other politicians and would-be investors.

今天是星期一，那一定是在柏林。或者是在斯德哥尔摩？摩根.茨万吉拉伊偶尔脱线也情有可原，这是他作为津巴布韦总理首次官方出访，行程安排得满满当当。6 月15日该轮到安格拉•默克尔（见上图）在柏林会见他了，此前，他已在华盛顿渡过了好几天，与巴拉克奥巴马总统会面。而接下来，他一路往南与瑞典人会面， 再飞往挪威。他还要会见比利时、丹麦、法国的领导人以及欧盟官员。最后，6月19日，他将用几天时间访英，与英国首相戈登布朗、一些不同党派的其他政客及 潜在的投资者进行亲切会谈。

Mr Tsvangirai always knew that this first official visit would be tricky. Tendai Biti, his finance minister, had already done the rounds of Western capitals with his begging-bowl and had come back empty-handed. So although the former opposition leader naturally hoped he would drum up a bit of extra cash for his shattered country, it was not the main aim of his trip. Rather it was to gain international support and recognition for himself and his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in their uneven power struggle with President Robert Mugabe and his Zanu-PF.
茨万吉拉伊先生一直对自己的首次官方访问将困难重重有着清醒的认识。他的财务部长滕达伊•比蒂已经屡次乞求西方各国的资助，但都空手而归。而尽管这位前任 反对党领导希望竭尽全力为自己百废待兴的国家争取到一点额外的金钱，但这并不是他此行的主要目标。在和总统罗伯特•穆加贝及其领导的非洲民族联盟爱国阵线 的权利之争中，他和他的民主改革运动党（MDC）落了下风，此行他希望能为自己及MDC争取国际支持和认可，这才是他的真正目的。

To that extent, the trip has already been a success. Anxious to boost Mr Tsvangirai at the expense of Mr Mugabe, foreign leaders have showered him with praise. Mr Obama talked about his “extraordinary admiration for the courage and the tenacity that the prime minister has shown in navigating through some very difficult political times.” Ms Merkel said Mr Tsvangirai was a symbol of democracy and deserved support. He was also sure to get a warm reception in London, where successive British governments have led international opposition to Mr Mugabe’s rule. In this respect, Mr Brown is as fiercely anti-Mugabe as his predecessors.
就这个方面而言，此行已经获得成功。急于打压穆加贝先生，提升茨万吉拉伊先生地位的外国领导们对他不吝溢美之词。奥巴马谈及总理在度过政治困难时期所表现 出的勇气和坚韧令他不胜钦佩。默克尔女士则说茨万吉拉伊先生是民主的象征，理应获得支持。可想而知，他在伦敦也一定会受到热情招待，历届英国政府都领导过 国际上反对穆加贝政权的运动。在这个方面，布朗先生与其前任一样强烈反对穆加贝。

However, it is no surprise that the man who was beaten up, jailed and threatened with death by Mr Mugabe and his security forces is finding it hard to persuade his foreign hosts that the “period of acrimony” between himself and the despotic president is “over” and that Zimbabwe is now “on an irreversible transition to democracy”. Few seem convinced. Some have even accused him of trying to deceive his interlocutors by painting too rosy a picture of the new Zimbabwe, perhaps out of a misplaced sense of patriotism.
然而，这个曾经被痛打、囚禁、受到穆加贝发出的死亡危险的人以及他的安全部队发现很难说服这些外国主人们，他和那位君主式的总统之间的针锋相对的时期已经 “结束”了，津巴布韦现在正不可逆转地向民主制过渡。几乎没人信服这点。有些人甚至指责他，说他可能把爱国主义用错了地方，描绘了一个过于美好的新津巴布 韦，试图以此欺骗谈话对方。

Yes, there have been some improvements. The hyperinflation of recent years, for instance, has been brought under control. But Zanu-PF is already warning its people to prepare for a snap election, perhaps as early as next March, in an apparent attempt by Mr Mugabe to block the introduction of a planned new constitution, with clear limits on executive power and strict rules for elections. Four months after the unity government was set up, Mr Mugabe still completely controls the armed forces, the police, the intelligence service, the media and criminal justice. Political opponents and human-rights campaigners are still arrested and thrown into the country’s jails on trumped-up charges.
是的，那里的确有所改进。例如，近几年的过度通胀已经得到控制。但非洲民族联盟爱国阵线已经警告津巴布韦人民为提前选举做好准备，也许就在明年3月，很明 显穆加贝企图借此使新宪法胎死腹中，因为新宪法对执行权加以明确限制，为选举制定了严格规定。在联合政府成立四个月后，穆加贝先生仍然完全控制着军队、警 察、情报机构、媒体和刑事司法。政治反对派和人权运动者仍然不断被捕，并因伪造的罪名被关进国家监狱。

White-owned farms are still being seized and invaded. Gideon Gono, the central-bank governor who oversaw the hyperinflation that helped destroy the country’s once-flourishing economy, is still in his job. And the 85-year-old Mr Mugabe continues to call the shots in what is supposed to be a partnership of equals.
白人业主的农场仍然被强占和非法进入。过度通胀在破坏该国一度繁荣的经济上起了推波助澜的作用，而对此负有监管之责的央行行长Gideon Gono现在仍然在位。联合政府中，双方本应是平等的合作伙伴，但现在发号施令的仍是85岁的穆加贝先生。

So Mr Tsvangirai got little change when it came to winning direct financial support for his power-sharing government. Likely donors still fear that too much of their cash would be stolen and squandered by Mr Mugabe’s entrenched cronies. Mr Obama pledged $73m in humanitarian aid when he met Mr Tsvangirai. But most of this is not new money and the American president stressed that it would go “directly to the Zimbabwean people” and nowhere near the government.
所以就算茨万吉拉伊先生能为权力共享的政府赢得直接的财务支持，也不会有什么改变。捐助者仍然可能担心他们的钱会过多地被穆加贝先生势力稳固的老朋友们窃 取并挥霍。奥巴马先生在会见茨万吉拉伊先生时承诺7300万人道主义援助，但这绝大部分并非新增援助，而且美国总统还强调这会直接给予津巴布韦人民，津巴 布韦政府不会有机会经手。

Don’t give it to the bad guy
不要把钱给坏家伙
Mr Obama also refused to lift the personal sanctions imposed on Mr Mugabe and other members of his regime nine years ago. Ms Merkel promised €25m ($35m), but this was also earmarked for education, health and farming. Zimbabwe already gets about $1 billion a year in humanitarian aid, which bypasses the government. A little of this already does go on what could be termed development projects, but for the moment Western governments are keen to spend most of this money on basic help for people who need food, medicine and clean water.
奥巴马先生也拒绝取消9年前对穆加贝和其政权中其他成员的个人制裁。默克尔女士承诺给予2500万欧元（相当于3500万美元），但这些钱也确定将用于教 育、卫生和农业。津巴布韦已经获得了大约一年10亿美元的人道主义援助，这些都不经过政府。其中一小部分已经流向所谓的发展项目，但目前，西方政府更热衷 于将绝大部分钱用于满足津巴布韦人民的对食物、药品、净水的基本需求。

Zimbabwe’s government-controlled media are belittling Mr Tsvangirai’s tour, first describing it as merely an MDC fund-raising mission, then claiming he was just “on assignment” at the president’s behest to press for the removal of sanctions and the restoration of the country’s lines of credit—both untrue. None of Mr Obama’s praise for the prime minister was mentioned in the state media, which failed even to show pictures of their meeting.
津巴布韦政府控制的媒体贬低茨万吉拉伊先生的出行，最初称之为“只不过是MDC的筹资代表团”，接着又声称他只是受命于总统，向美国施压取消制裁，恢复该 国的最高信用额度——两者都不是事实。奥巴马对茨万吉拉伊总理的称赞一句都没有出现在国家媒体上，甚至连他们会面的图片都没有出现。

That he has been welcomed by some of the world’s most powerful leaders and given a red-carpet treatment wherever he goes is itself a notable advance for Zimbabwe. But at this stage Mr Tsvangirai can hope for little more.
茨万吉拉伊先生受到世界上一些最有权势的的领导人的欢迎，所到之处，红毯铺地，这本身对津巴布韦来说就是一个显著的进展。但现阶段，茨万吉拉伊先生已不能指望更多收获了。