《The Economist》《经济学人》中文版

The trail of disaster
灾难的身影
Jun 18th 2009
From The Economist print edition

The downturn is claiming victims that never appear on a balance sheet
萧条引致的受害者是那些从来不会被显示在资产负债表上的人群


A long walk from the boardroom
理论到现实的道路还很漫长

NINE months after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the world’s economic crisis is still usually discussed as though it consisted of dire bank balance-sheets, falling exports and bankruptcies or job losses in the West. But at the other end of the trail that starts with financial woes in rich countries are underweight children and anaemic expectant mothers in poor ones. New research by the United Nations’ standing committee on nutrition (available on www.unscn.org) gives a first estimate of how the crisis has hurt the group of people most affected by the crash: the very poorest.
        在雷曼兄弟破产9个月后，世界经济危机还往往是被描述成包括了恐怖的银行资产负债表，出口的下滑，银行破产以及西方的失业。但是在这场从发达国家的 财务困境开始的危机追溯中，位于其另一端的情况是穷国中体重日渐下降的儿童和患贫血症的准妈妈们。联合国营养常设委员会的最新研究针对金融危机给那些遭受 重创的人群 — 最贫穷的人群 — 造了多大的伤害给出了一个初步的估算。

In 1990-2007, the number of hungry people rose by about 80m, though this was, by and large, a period of rising incomes in developing countries (and a huge increase in population). In 2008 alone, the number rose a further 40m, to 963m—half as much in one year as during the previous 17. In other words, lots more children and pregnant women are not getting the food they need. The report reckons that the number of underweight children will rise from 121m to 125m by 2010, assuming no change in the size of the world economy (in fact, it is expected to shrink 2% this year). The World Bank has already estimated that until 2015 the crisis will lead to between 200,000 and 400,000 more children dying every year.
        在1990 – 2007年期间，挨饿人口增加了大约8千万，尽管这是发展中国家收入一直在上涨的一个时期。仅仅是2008年这一年里，这个数字就又增加了4千万，达到了 9.63亿，一年的数据基本是过去17年里总数的一半。换句话说，更多的儿童和孕妇没有得到他们需要的食品。报告认为，如果世界经济规模不变的话，到 2010年体重下降的儿童数量会从1.21亿增加到1.25亿，（事实上，预计今年的世界经济总量会萎缩2%）。世界银行已经估计到2015年危机会导致 每年有20万到40万的儿童死亡。

The poorest face two crises: the world recession and the resumption of food-price rises. Food prices had been falling but even then, the global price fall did not translate into a comparable decline on local markets in most poor countries, so the poor did not benefit much. World prices bottomed out in December 2008 and have since risen 26%. In the poorest countries, a rise of 50% in the price of staples pushes up the family food budget from 50% to 60% of household income.
        最平穷的人面临的是双重困境：世界范围的萧条以及食品价格的新一轮上涨。食品价格过去一直在下降，但是即使是在全球范围内食品价格下降期，在大多数 贫穷国家里本国市场上的价格并没有相应的下降，所以穷人并没有从降价中获得什么好处。世界食品价格在2008年12月走出低谷，在此之后上涨了26%。在 最贫穷的国家里，主食价格上涨50%会推动家庭的食物预算占到家庭收入的50% - 60%。

Initially, people skimp on non-staple foods, cutting the quality and diversity of their intake; in the next stage, the quantity and safety of diets suffer. That in turn damages their health. Currently, around 50m, or 40%, of pregnant women in developing countries are anaemic. Anaemia in expectant mothers, which causes low birth weight and unhealthier babies, is likely to rise by a further 1.2m in Asia and 700,000 in Africa.
        最初，人们通过削减食物品质和摄入种类来减少副食品方面的开支，紧接着就是食物数量和安全性。这样的结果是影响健康。现在，发展中国家中大约有5千 万或是40%的怀孕妇女患有贫血症。准妈妈得贫血症会使新生儿体重下降而且宝宝会不健康，亚洲患有贫血症的准妈妈人数可能会再增加120万人，而非洲的增 加人数是70万人。

To make matters worse, this is happening at a time when the global slump is causing job losses or wage squeezes everywhere—worldwide unemployment rose to 6% in 2008—so in some poor countries, it now takes an extra ten hours a week or more to feed a family of five.
        使事情变得更糟糕的是，以上这些都发生在全球大萧条正在引致大范围的失业及工资缩减时期 – 世界范围内的失业率在2008年上升到6% - 所以在一些贫穷国家里，要养活一个五口之家需要额外多工作10个小时或是更长的时间。

The resulting burden falls heavily on women. As the report says starkly: “Women are usually the last to benefit from increasing income [but] they are usually the first to make sacrifices when the financial situation deteriorates.”
        随之而来的负担更多的压在了妇女肩上。就像联合国营养常设委员会的报告很明确指出的那样：“妇女往往是收入上涨最后的受益人但却往往是经济环境恶化时首先要做出牺牲的人。