《The Economist》《经济学人》中文版

Crisis in Sudan
苏丹危机

The promise and peril of independence
独立的希望和危险

Jun 11th 2009 | NASIR
From The Economist print edition

In 2011 Africa is set to get a new country. But South Sudan could well start life as a prefailed state
2011年非洲将诞生一个新的国家。先天不足，南苏丹能步入正轨吗？


MAJOR JOHNSON GUCH of the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) sits outside a grass hut at the edge of Nasir, a missionary post in Nuerland that in time became a dismal town (see map). Dressed in a tracksuit, he gives the air of a local warlord. A Nuer himself, Mr Guch is commander of a joint integrated unit (JIU) of southern and northern Sudanese soldiers mandated to keep the peace in Nasir. He says he has 150 southern soldiers, each with a small tin of bullets. But he is dismissive of the northern soldiers. He does not know how many there are. He says he does not care. It is not, in any sense of the word, a joint command.

苏丹人民解放军（SPLA）MAJOR JOHNSON GUCH坐在纳西尔边境的茅草屋外面，Nuerland的一个行动点不久就变成了凄凉的小镇（见图）。穿 着田径装，他颇有当地军阀的气质。自己也是努尔人，Guch先生是南北苏丹士兵联合部队的司令，这支部队被委任保持纳西尔地区的和平。他说他有150名南 苏丹士兵，每个士兵有一小罐子弹。但他对北苏丹士兵不感兴趣。他既不知道有多少北苏丹士兵，也不在乎这些。无论怎么说，这都不是联合司令部。

The commander of the northern troops, Captain Osman Mustafa, is more gracious, but also more disingenuous. His tent is a walk across a black wasteland pocked by the twisted wreckage of vehicles blown up in the war and little piles of human faeces left by the locals, who eschew latrines. A Muslim from the Nuba mountains, Mr Mustafa says he has 300 soldiers, enough guns and, of course, very good relations with the southerners.

北苏丹部队首领Osman Mustafa更亲切也更虚伪。到他的帐篷要走过一片黑色的废墟，废墟上有许多战争中爆炸遗留下来的车辆遗骸和几堆当地人的粪便，当地人不用厕所。Mustafa先生是来着努巴山区的穆斯林，他称他有300名士兵，足够的枪。当然也和南苏丹人相处得很好。



Together with a hopelessly inactive UN peacekeeping force dug in on the other side of Nasir, the JIU stood by and did nothing when one group of Nuer attacked another last m onth, slaughtering 71 people in the nearby village of Torkej. The Lou-Nuer targeted a cattle camp tended by women and children from the Jikany. Those sleeping outside under mosquito nets were shot point blank. The Lou sprayed the huts with bullets. They drove older children into the river, where they drowned. The Lou took the cattle and Torkej’s other meagre possessions. Fifty seven wounded were taken to a Médecins Sans Frontières hospital.

驻扎在纳西尔另一边的联合国维和部队，同样不能发挥其作用。上个月，一群努尔人在Torkej村庄袭击了另一群努尔人，屠杀了71个人。维和部队和联合部队袖手旁观，无所作为。卢-努尔人将Jikany一 个由妇女和儿童看管的牲口棚定为了袭击目标。那些睡在外面蚊帐下的人被近距离枪杀。卢-努尔人扫射了这个牲口棚。他们大一点的孩子赶到河里淹死了。卢-努 尔人掳走了Torkej的牲口和少量财产。75名受伤者已经送往Médecins Sans Frontières医院。

The Jikany insist it is unheard of for cattle raiders to target women and children. They are furious that they had no guns to defend themselves. Under South Sudan’s patchy disarmament programme, the Jikany gave up their guns, the Lou kept theirs. Jikany elders say the Lou are working for the northern government of President Omar al-Bashir in Khartoum. They believe the north supplied at least 1,000 machineguns to the Lou in recent months. They say the Lou have been attacking their neighbours on all sides, including the Murle to the south, at the behest of Mr Bashir’s government. For their part, the Lou say it is the Murle who are proxies of the northern regime.

Jikany人坚称对以妇女和儿童为目标的牲口突袭者闻所未闻。没有枪支来自卫更使他们愤怒。在南苏丹不一致的解除武装行动下，Jikany人上交了他们 的枪支，Lou人却保留了他们的枪支。Jikany长辈们宣称Lou人在为喀土穆的北方政府奥马尔.巴希尔总统效力。他们认为北方政府在近几个月内提供了 至少1000把机关枪给Lou人。他们说Lou人按照巴希尔政府的要求，不停地到处袭击他们的周围地区，包括南部的Murle。对Lou人来 说，Murle才是北方政权的代理人。

Whatever the truth, the episode is a sign of a wider breakdown of peace across southern Sudan. In the past month or so hundreds of people have been killed in violent clashes similar to the one in Torkej, as nomadic groups compete for the best cattle and grazing land. Conflict is normal, but it is not normal for so many to be killed in this way—at least in recent years. The UN says that more people are now being killed in the south than in Darfur, Sudan’s troubled western region.

无论真相如何，这一事件标志着南苏丹地区和平全面的崩溃。近几个月，数以百计的人在类似Torkej 的暴力冲突中丧生，比如游牧部落争夺最好的牲口和牧场。这样的冲突再正常不过了，但是至少在近几年，如此之多人丧生就不正常了。联合国宣称，南苏丹所丧生 的人口数目，比苏丹西部混乱的达尔富尔地区还要多。

Under the terms of a peace agreement with the northern government of Mr Bashir signed in 2005, the south is expected to vote for secession in a referendum in 2011. The prospect of gaining a new country, South Sudan, raised hopes of an end to Sudan’s civil war between the predominantly Muslim north and the Christian and animist south, which lasted on and off for the best part of 50 years. At last, the flattened south would rebuild itself.