Property in America
美国地产

Commercial break
商务风云突变

Apr 23rd 2009
From The Economist print edition

Disaster looms in yet another asset class
另一场资产灾难隐现

GENERAL GROWTH PROPERTIES (GGP) and the Great Basin Bank do not have a lot in common. One is America’s second-largest mall owner, the other a small bank in Elko, Nevada. But both shut their doors within a day of each other this month because of their exposure to commercial property, the most threatening in a line-up of suspect asset classes.

共同发展房地产公司(GGP)和大盆地银行没有太多共同点。一家是美国第二大商业街的拥有者，另一个是位于美国内华达州埃尔科县的一家小银行。但是都因可疑资产中最致命的商业地产的曝光而各自于这个月的某一天关门了。

GGP filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on April 16th. Its assets, which include the Fashion Show Mall in Las Vegas (pictured) and South Street Seaport in New York, are high-quality and continue to generate decent income. Its financing structure is what got it into trouble. GGP found that it simply could not roll over its debts because of a lack of liquidity.

GGP于4月16日申请第11条款破产保护。它的资产，包括位于拉斯维加斯的时尚秀商场（见图片）和纽约的南街码头，都是极好的并能持续带来可观收入的。它出问题是由于它的财务结构。GGP发现由于缺乏流动性而不能周转它的债务。



GGP’s difficulties were not unexpected. It was carrying lots of debt, principally because of a big acquisition in 2004, and much of it was short-term. But its failure still sends two shock waves. First, by including several properties that back commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) in its Chapter 11 filing, GGP has unnerved investors who expect such assets to be ringfenced in a bankruptcy.

GGP的困境是令人意想不到的。它正背负大量债务，主要是由于在2004年的大量购入，并且大多是短期的。但是它的失败依然产生了两个冲击波。首先，由于在它的破产申请文件中有几处地产是基于商业抵押担保证券，GGP使那些原本希望这样的资产不会破产的信心失去。

The second shock wave is that GGP’s bankruptcy underlines a pervasive refinancing risk for the industry. Foresight Analytics, a research firm, reckons that $594 billion of commercial mortgages will mature in America alone between 2009 and 2011. Many of these borrowers will have a big problem when their loans mature. Just as in residential property, the financing terms that were available to property and construction firms got ever laxer as the bubble inflated. Loan-to-value ratios of 85-95% were common in 2006 and 2007. These have now tightened to 60-65% and below for new lending.

第二个冲击是GGP的破产突出了对这个产业扩大再融资的风险。一家研究机构Foresight Analytics估计，美国在2009年到2011年间将有5940亿美元商务抵押贷款到期。当这些贷款到期时，多数借款人将有大麻烦。如同住宅资产， 在泡沫通胀时房地产和建筑公司的有效融资条件是宽松的。在2006年和2007年85-95%的贷款价值比率是很平常的。现在收紧到60-65%，新的贷 款更低。

That would be bad enough if prices were static. They are not. Commercial-property prices have fallen by 35% or so in America. Richard Parkus, of Deutsche Bank, thinks that 70% of all CMBS issued recently in America will not be able to refinance without a big increase in the capital that borrowers stump up.

假如价格稳定，那已经够糟的了。但不仅于此。在美国商业地产价格已下降大约35%。德国银行的Richard Parkus认为最近美国发行的所有商业抵押担保证券中的70%将不能再融资。

It is likely to be a similar story with bank lending. Many banks are extending loan terms, hoping that the problem will go away. It will not. A growing overhang of debt will only make it harder for the market to recover. And the full effects of the bust are only just beginning to be felt. Losses on commercial property tend to lag behind rises in the unemployment rate by a year or so, largely because lease terms protect landlords from immediate falls in rental income. (An exception is the hotel industry, where leases are, in effect, renewed daily). The pain is now arriving. Office vacancies in America’s city centres increased to 12.5% in the first quarter, up from 9.9% a year earlier. Delinquencies are spiralling. Write-offs on bank-held commercial-property loans rose sevenfold in 2008.

这可能有点象银行贷款。许多银行扩大它们的贷款条件，希望问题将离去。但不会。正在增长的悬置债务将只能使市场恢复更加困难。破产的影响似乎才刚刚开始。 商业地产的损失一般滞后失业率的上升大约1年左右，主要因为租期保护了房主免予租金收入的立即下降。（一个例外是旅馆业，其租约是每日更新的）。困难时期 正在到来。美国市中心的办公室空闲在一季度从一年前的9.9%增加到12.5%。拖欠行为正螺旋上升。在2008年银行持有的商业地产贷款的注销上升了7 倍。

The potential for further damage to the banks is especially worrying. Morgan Stanley’s first-quarter results on April 22nd included a $1 billion loss on its real-estate investments. But the loan books are where the real concerns lie. Commercial-property loans, including construction and development, account for 22% of American bank loans, up from an average of 14% in the 1980s and 1990s.

银行进一步受损的可能性尤其令人担心。4月22日摩根士丹利的一季度业绩中包括了在房地产投资上的10亿美元损失。但是贷款帐目的真实性令人存疑。包括建设和开发的商业地产贷款占美国银行贷款的比例从上世纪80年代和90年代平均的14%上升到22%。

Smaller banks are exposed. Matthew Anderson of Foresight Analytics says that banks with assets between $100m and $10 billion hold commercial-property loans worth more than three times their total risk-based capital. Great Basin Bank, the 25th American bank to fail this year, was undone by heavy losses on commercial property. It will not be the last.

较小的银行容易受到影响。Foresight Analytics的Matthew Anderson说资产在一亿到100亿美元的银行持有的商业地产贷款超过其总的风险资本的3倍。大盆地银行，美国第25大银行，今年由于其在商业地产上 的重大损失而破产。它将不会是最后一家。