《The Economist》《经济学人》中文版

America's thriving gossip magazines
美国繁荣的八卦杂志

Rags to riches 杂志致富

Jun 18th 2009 | NEW YORK
From The Economist print edition

One corner of the print-news industry is relatively healthy
新闻印刷业的一隅相对繁荣

FOR seven of the past eight weeks the front cover of Us Weekly magazine has featured salacious stories about Jon and Kate Gosselin. The Gosselins, who have eight children including sextuplets, are the stars of an obscure American reality-TV programme that briefly became the most watched show on cable. Sensing a surge of interest, other celebrity magazines have piled in with reports of marital disharmony. Even in a recession, tittle-tattle sells.

过去的八周有七周,《美国周刊》封面以Jon和Kate Gosselin的粗俗故事为特色。Gosselin一家，有包括6胞胎在内的8个孩子，成了美国现实-TV节目的明星，节目短时间也在有线电视上备受瞩 目。其他名人杂志发觉公众兴趣激增，便在杂志中插入关于不和谐婚姻的报道。即使经济衰退，八卦还是有的卖。

Buoyed by recession-resistant food, pharmaceutical and shampoo advertisements, gossip magazines have lost fewer advertising pages in the past year than business or news magazines, according to a tally by Mediaweek. The two biggest, People and Us Weekly, each sold more copies last year than they did in 2001. In a world of fragmenting audiences they boast an enormous reach. Fully 43m Americans, about two-thirds of them women, flick through a copy of People each week.

据《媒体周刊》统计，过去一年里，由抵制衰退的食粮——药品和香波广告维持着，比起商业或新闻杂志，八卦杂志失去的广告页较少。两家最大的杂志《人物》和 《美国周刊》，每家去年比2001年卖出了更多的杂志。拥有大量分散读者，他们占据了极大的范围。足有四千三百万美国人，妇女大约占三分之二，每周浏览一 份《人物》杂志。

This is odd, because the forces blamed for the decline of print news are no less potent in the celebrity sector. Celebrity news has its own online aggregators, several of them linked to web portals, such as omg!, the gossip arm of Yahoo!. The self-publicising Perez Hilton leads a legion of bloggers. Tweets, mobile-phone alerts and gossipy television shows (there are five, up from three in 2000) provide much more timely information about the lives of the beautiful than do magazines. There is more direct competition, too, with three big glossy magazines having launched since 2002.

这很奇怪，因为谴责新闻印刷业衰退的力量在名人部分依旧有力。人物新闻有自己的网络聚合器，有几个聚合器链接到了网络门户，像是对象管理集团（omg!） 和雅虎（Yahoo!）的八卦部。自我宣传的Perez Hilton带领了一大队博客。Tweets，手机提醒和八卦电视节目（2000年有3个，现在升至5个）提供名人生活信息比杂志更加及时。2002年开 办的3家精品杂志，也是个更为直接的竞争。

It may be that the new entrants have simply mopped up excess interest in the doings of Paris Hilton and Lindsay Lohan. Larry Hackett, the editor of People, reckons that the public appetite for entertainment news was underserved until recently. Far from harming the established publications, the multimedia gossip barrage may be driving readers to check scurrilous rumours with them.

也许新加入者挖一下Paris Hilton和Lindsay Lohan的故事就轻而易举满足公众额外的兴趣。《人物》编辑Larry Hackett认为，公众对娱乐新闻的需求至今未得到满足。多媒体八卦的攻势非但不会波及现有杂志，也许会驱使读者和他们一起核查粗俗的谣言。

The field is probably too crowded. None of the three new publications—In Touch, Life & Style and OK!—sold more than a million copies a week on average last year. The turbulent economy has shaken lucrative news-stand sales in particular. As the weaker publications struggle, though, the strongest ones are expanding boldly into new platforms and products. People has launched an iPhone application and its website receives 13m unique visitors per month, according to comScore, a research firm. Its empire includes a fashion portal, a Spanish-language magazine, a country issue, puzzle books and a pets website, all written in the same reassuring style.

这个行业或许太过密集。去年3家新杂志《接触》、《生活&方式》和《OK!》，平均每周没有一家能卖出一百万份。尤其是动荡的经济动摇了有利可图 的报摊销售。愈加衰弱的杂志还在挣扎，而顶强大的却在大胆开拓新平台和新产品。据调查公司comScore，《人物》已着手一份iPhone申请，其网站 每月接待一千三百万独立访客。《人物》帝国包括一个时尚门户网站、一份西语杂志、一个国家问题、几本智力测验书和一个宠物网站，所有的编辑风格都是统一的 并且有所保证。

However far-flung their operations, celebrity publishers know they must drive traffic to the weekly magazine, where the real money is still to be made. The best websites offer titbits, updates and quotes. When it comes to longer articles and scoops, though, online readers are firmly steered to the news-stand with notes that begin, “To find out more…”. Janice Min, the editor-in-chief of Us Weekly, reckons the content of her magazine and its associated website overlap by no more than 15%. “Why would you post your entire cover story online?” she asks.

不论名人杂志出版商的经营多么广泛，他们知道必须驱使人们买周刊才能真正赚到钱。最棒的网站提供花絮趣闻、更新材料和援引。然而一看到较长的文章和独家报 道，在线读者会坚定地奔向标有“欲知详情……”的报摊。《美国周刊》总编辑Janice Min估计，其杂志与相关网站重复的内容不足15%。她问：“为什么要把全部封面专题放到网上呢？”

Zimbabwe's hard sell
津巴布韦的强行推销

A warm welcome but little money
欢迎虽热烈，要钱却没有
Jun 18th 2009
From The Economist print edition

So far Morgan Tsvangirai’s ground-breaking tour of America and Europe has brought plaudits rather than cash for Zimbabwe’s battered economy
迄今，摩根.茨万吉拉伊的欧美破冰之旅尽管赢得阵阵喝彩，却并未为津巴布韦屡遭重挫的经济带来金援

IT IS Monday, so it must be Berlin. Or is it Stockholm? Morgan Tsvangirai may be forgiven for occasionally losing track, so crammed has his schedule been on his first official tour abroad as Zimbabwe’s prime minister. On June 15th it was the turn of Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel (pictured above), to meet him in Berlin, after he had spent a few days in Washington, DC, where he met President Barack Obama. Then he headed north to meet the Swedes, before flying across to Norway. He was also due to meet the leaders of Belgium, Denmark and France, plus officials from the European Union. Finally, on June 19th, he is to visit Britain for several days to hobnob with the prime minister, Gordon Brown, plus various other politicians and would-be investors.

今天是星期一，那一定是在柏林。或者是在斯德哥尔摩？摩根.茨万吉拉伊偶尔脱线也情有可原，这是他作为津巴布韦总理首次官方出访，行程安排得满满当当。6 月15日该轮到安格拉•默克尔（见上图）在柏林会见他了，此前，他已在华盛顿渡过了好几天，与巴拉克奥巴马总统会面。而接下来，他一路往南与瑞典人会面， 再飞往挪威。他还要会见比利时、丹麦、法国的领导人以及欧盟官员。最后，6月19日，他将用几天时间访英，与英国首相戈登布朗、一些不同党派的其他政客及 潜在的投资者进行亲切会谈。

Mr Tsvangirai always knew that this first official visit would be tricky. Tendai Biti, his finance minister, had already done the rounds of Western capitals with his begging-bowl and had come back empty-handed. So although the former opposition leader naturally hoped he would drum up a bit of extra cash for his shattered country, it was not the main aim of his trip. Rather it was to gain international support and recognition for himself and his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in their uneven power struggle with President Robert Mugabe and his Zanu-PF.
茨万吉拉伊先生一直对自己的首次官方访问将困难重重有着清醒的认识。他的财务部长滕达伊•比蒂已经屡次乞求西方各国的资助，但都空手而归。而尽管这位前任 反对党领导希望竭尽全力为自己百废待兴的国家争取到一点额外的金钱，但这并不是他此行的主要目标。在和总统罗伯特•穆加贝及其领导的非洲民族联盟爱国阵线 的权利之争中，他和他的民主改革运动党（MDC）落了下风，此行他希望能为自己及MDC争取国际支持和认可，这才是他的真正目的。

To that extent, the trip has already been a success. Anxious to boost Mr Tsvangirai at the expense of Mr Mugabe, foreign leaders have showered him with praise. Mr Obama talked about his “extraordinary admiration for the courage and the tenacity that the prime minister has shown in navigating through some very difficult political times.” Ms Merkel said Mr Tsvangirai was a symbol of democracy and deserved support. He was also sure to get a warm reception in London, where successive British governments have led international opposition to Mr Mugabe’s rule. In this respect, Mr Brown is as fiercely anti-Mugabe as his predecessors.
就这个方面而言，此行已经获得成功。急于打压穆加贝先生，提升茨万吉拉伊先生地位的外国领导们对他不吝溢美之词。奥巴马谈及总理在度过政治困难时期所表现 出的勇气和坚韧令他不胜钦佩。默克尔女士则说茨万吉拉伊先生是民主的象征，理应获得支持。可想而知，他在伦敦也一定会受到热情招待，历届英国政府都领导过 国际上反对穆加贝政权的运动。在这个方面，布朗先生与其前任一样强烈反对穆加贝。

However, it is no surprise that the man who was beaten up, jailed and threatened with death by Mr Mugabe and his security forces is finding it hard to persuade his foreign hosts that the “period of acrimony” between himself and the despotic president is “over” and that Zimbabwe is now “on an irreversible transition to democracy”. Few seem convinced. Some have even accused him of trying to deceive his interlocutors by painting too rosy a picture of the new Zimbabwe, perhaps out of a misplaced sense of patriotism.
然而，这个曾经被痛打、囚禁、受到穆加贝发出的死亡危险的人以及他的安全部队发现很难说服这些外国主人们，他和那位君主式的总统之间的针锋相对的时期已经 “结束”了，津巴布韦现在正不可逆转地向民主制过渡。几乎没人信服这点。有些人甚至指责他，说他可能把爱国主义用错了地方，描绘了一个过于美好的新津巴布 韦，试图以此欺骗谈话对方。

Yes, there have been some improvements. The hyperinflation of recent years, for instance, has been brought under control. But Zanu-PF is already warning its people to prepare for a snap election, perhaps as early as next March, in an apparent attempt by Mr Mugabe to block the introduction of a planned new constitution, with clear limits on executive power and strict rules for elections. Four months after the unity government was set up, Mr Mugabe still completely controls the armed forces, the police, the intelligence service, the media and criminal justice. Political opponents and human-rights campaigners are still arrested and thrown into the country’s jails on trumped-up charges.
是的，那里的确有所改进。例如，近几年的过度通胀已经得到控制。但非洲民族联盟爱国阵线已经警告津巴布韦人民为提前选举做好准备，也许就在明年3月，很明 显穆加贝企图借此使新宪法胎死腹中，因为新宪法对执行权加以明确限制，为选举制定了严格规定。在联合政府成立四个月后，穆加贝先生仍然完全控制着军队、警 察、情报机构、媒体和刑事司法。政治反对派和人权运动者仍然不断被捕，并因伪造的罪名被关进国家监狱。

White-owned farms are still being seized and invaded. Gideon Gono, the central-bank governor who oversaw the hyperinflation that helped destroy the country’s once-flourishing economy, is still in his job. And the 85-year-old Mr Mugabe continues to call the shots in what is supposed to be a partnership of equals.
白人业主的农场仍然被强占和非法进入。过度通胀在破坏该国一度繁荣的经济上起了推波助澜的作用，而对此负有监管之责的央行行长Gideon Gono现在仍然在位。联合政府中，双方本应是平等的合作伙伴，但现在发号施令的仍是85岁的穆加贝先生。

So Mr Tsvangirai got little change when it came to winning direct financial support for his power-sharing government. Likely donors still fear that too much of their cash would be stolen and squandered by Mr Mugabe’s entrenched cronies. Mr Obama pledged $73m in humanitarian aid when he met Mr Tsvangirai. But most of this is not new money and the American president stressed that it would go “directly to the Zimbabwean people” and nowhere near the government.
所以就算茨万吉拉伊先生能为权力共享的政府赢得直接的财务支持，也不会有什么改变。捐助者仍然可能担心他们的钱会过多地被穆加贝先生势力稳固的老朋友们窃 取并挥霍。奥巴马先生在会见茨万吉拉伊先生时承诺7300万人道主义援助，但这绝大部分并非新增援助，而且美国总统还强调这会直接给予津巴布韦人民，津巴 布韦政府不会有机会经手。

Don’t give it to the bad guy
不要把钱给坏家伙
Mr Obama also refused to lift the personal sanctions imposed on Mr Mugabe and other members of his regime nine years ago. Ms Merkel promised €25m ($35m), but this was also earmarked for education, health and farming. Zimbabwe already gets about $1 billion a year in humanitarian aid, which bypasses the government. A little of this already does go on what could be termed development projects, but for the moment Western governments are keen to spend most of this money on basic help for people who need food, medicine and clean water.
奥巴马先生也拒绝取消9年前对穆加贝和其政权中其他成员的个人制裁。默克尔女士承诺给予2500万欧元（相当于3500万美元），但这些钱也确定将用于教 育、卫生和农业。津巴布韦已经获得了大约一年10亿美元的人道主义援助，这些都不经过政府。其中一小部分已经流向所谓的发展项目，但目前，西方政府更热衷 于将绝大部分钱用于满足津巴布韦人民的对食物、药品、净水的基本需求。

Zimbabwe’s government-controlled media are belittling Mr Tsvangirai’s tour, first describing it as merely an MDC fund-raising mission, then claiming he was just “on assignment” at the president’s behest to press for the removal of sanctions and the restoration of the country’s lines of credit—both untrue. None of Mr Obama’s praise for the prime minister was mentioned in the state media, which failed even to show pictures of their meeting.
津巴布韦政府控制的媒体贬低茨万吉拉伊先生的出行，最初称之为“只不过是MDC的筹资代表团”，接着又声称他只是受命于总统，向美国施压取消制裁，恢复该 国的最高信用额度——两者都不是事实。奥巴马对茨万吉拉伊总理的称赞一句都没有出现在国家媒体上，甚至连他们会面的图片都没有出现。

That he has been welcomed by some of the world’s most powerful leaders and given a red-carpet treatment wherever he goes is itself a notable advance for Zimbabwe. But at this stage Mr Tsvangirai can hope for little more.
茨万吉拉伊先生受到世界上一些最有权势的的领导人的欢迎，所到之处，红毯铺地，这本身对津巴布韦来说就是一个显著的进展。但现阶段，茨万吉拉伊先生已不能指望更多收获了。

The trail of disaster
灾难的身影
Jun 18th 2009
From The Economist print edition

The downturn is claiming victims that never appear on a balance sheet
萧条引致的受害者是那些从来不会被显示在资产负债表上的人群


A long walk from the boardroom
理论到现实的道路还很漫长

NINE months after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the world’s economic crisis is still usually discussed as though it consisted of dire bank balance-sheets, falling exports and bankruptcies or job losses in the West. But at the other end of the trail that starts with financial woes in rich countries are underweight children and anaemic expectant mothers in poor ones. New research by the United Nations’ standing committee on nutrition (available on www.unscn.org) gives a first estimate of how the crisis has hurt the group of people most affected by the crash: the very poorest.
        在雷曼兄弟破产9个月后，世界经济危机还往往是被描述成包括了恐怖的银行资产负债表，出口的下滑，银行破产以及西方的失业。但是在这场从发达国家的 财务困境开始的危机追溯中，位于其另一端的情况是穷国中体重日渐下降的儿童和患贫血症的准妈妈们。联合国营养常设委员会的最新研究针对金融危机给那些遭受 重创的人群 — 最贫穷的人群 — 造了多大的伤害给出了一个初步的估算。

In 1990-2007, the number of hungry people rose by about 80m, though this was, by and large, a period of rising incomes in developing countries (and a huge increase in population). In 2008 alone, the number rose a further 40m, to 963m—half as much in one year as during the previous 17. In other words, lots more children and pregnant women are not getting the food they need. The report reckons that the number of underweight children will rise from 121m to 125m by 2010, assuming no change in the size of the world economy (in fact, it is expected to shrink 2% this year). The World Bank has already estimated that until 2015 the crisis will lead to between 200,000 and 400,000 more children dying every year.
        在1990 – 2007年期间，挨饿人口增加了大约8千万，尽管这是发展中国家收入一直在上涨的一个时期。仅仅是2008年这一年里，这个数字就又增加了4千万，达到了 9.63亿，一年的数据基本是过去17年里总数的一半。换句话说，更多的儿童和孕妇没有得到他们需要的食品。报告认为，如果世界经济规模不变的话，到 2010年体重下降的儿童数量会从1.21亿增加到1.25亿，（事实上，预计今年的世界经济总量会萎缩2%）。世界银行已经估计到2015年危机会导致 每年有20万到40万的儿童死亡。

The poorest face two crises: the world recession and the resumption of food-price rises. Food prices had been falling but even then, the global price fall did not translate into a comparable decline on local markets in most poor countries, so the poor did not benefit much. World prices bottomed out in December 2008 and have since risen 26%. In the poorest countries, a rise of 50% in the price of staples pushes up the family food budget from 50% to 60% of household income.
        最平穷的人面临的是双重困境：世界范围的萧条以及食品价格的新一轮上涨。食品价格过去一直在下降，但是即使是在全球范围内食品价格下降期，在大多数 贫穷国家里本国市场上的价格并没有相应的下降，所以穷人并没有从降价中获得什么好处。世界食品价格在2008年12月走出低谷，在此之后上涨了26%。在 最贫穷的国家里，主食价格上涨50%会推动家庭的食物预算占到家庭收入的50% - 60%。

Initially, people skimp on non-staple foods, cutting the quality and diversity of their intake; in the next stage, the quantity and safety of diets suffer. That in turn damages their health. Currently, around 50m, or 40%, of pregnant women in developing countries are anaemic. Anaemia in expectant mothers, which causes low birth weight and unhealthier babies, is likely to rise by a further 1.2m in Asia and 700,000 in Africa.
        最初，人们通过削减食物品质和摄入种类来减少副食品方面的开支，紧接着就是食物数量和安全性。这样的结果是影响健康。现在，发展中国家中大约有5千 万或是40%的怀孕妇女患有贫血症。准妈妈得贫血症会使新生儿体重下降而且宝宝会不健康，亚洲患有贫血症的准妈妈人数可能会再增加120万人，而非洲的增 加人数是70万人。

To make matters worse, this is happening at a time when the global slump is causing job losses or wage squeezes everywhere—worldwide unemployment rose to 6% in 2008—so in some poor countries, it now takes an extra ten hours a week or more to feed a family of five.
        使事情变得更糟糕的是，以上这些都发生在全球大萧条正在引致大范围的失业及工资缩减时期 – 世界范围内的失业率在2008年上升到6% - 所以在一些贫穷国家里，要养活一个五口之家需要额外多工作10个小时或是更长的时间。

The resulting burden falls heavily on women. As the report says starkly: “Women are usually the last to benefit from increasing income [but] they are usually the first to make sacrifices when the financial situation deteriorates.”
        随之而来的负担更多的压在了妇女肩上。就像联合国营养常设委员会的报告很明确指出的那样：“妇女往往是收入上涨最后的受益人但却往往是经济环境恶化时首先要做出牺牲的人。

A special report on the euro area
欧元区特别报道

No exit 没有退路

Jun 11th 2009
From The Economist print edition

Staying in the euro will be tough for some members, but leaving would be too awful to contemplate
对一些成员国来说，呆在欧元区的日子不好过，但是考虑离开欧元区更可怕

Illustration by M. Morgenstern


IN THE weeks following the collapse of Lehman Brothers last September the number of euro banknotes in circulation suddenly increased. Fears about the rickety state of banks had made many people mistrustful of keeping money on deposit. Far safer to keep cash stuffed under a mattress. The more discriminating hoarders, it was said, were careful to squirrel away banknotes with serial numbers prefixed by the letter “X”, indicating currency issued in Germany. Notes with “U” (French) or “P” (Dutch) prefix were also fine, but those with a “Y” or an “S”, issued by Greece and Italy, were shunned.

去年9月自雷曼兄弟破产后的数周内流通中的欧元钞票数量骤增。摇摇欲坠的银行系统令人担忧，使得人们不敢将钱存入银行。人们认为将钱藏在家里更安全。据 说，越挑剔的储蓄者，越小心翼翼。他们喜欢储存序列号前缀为X的钞票，即在德国发行的货币。前缀为U（法国）或者P（荷兰）的钞票也可以，但是那些前缀为 Y或者S，分别是在希腊和意大利发行的钞票则是要极力避免的。

The logic was that if you were preparing for financial apocalypse, you had better not rely on the euro area surviving intact. In fact, banknotes are a shared obligation of all euro-zone members, no matter where they are printed. If the issuing country were to leave the single currency, a five-euro note would still be worth five euros, whatever the serial number. However, interest-bearing debt denominated in euros is a different matter, and bond markets quickly started to sort the Xs from the Ys.

这背后的逻辑是如果你警惕经济灾难，最好不要试图依靠欧元区而毫发无损。事实上，流通中的钞票是所有欧元区成员国的共同负债，不管它是在哪儿发行。如果发 行国打算放弃单一货币，一个5欧元的钞票仍然值5个欧元，不管它的序列号是什么。然而，欧元面值的有息负债却是另一回事，债券市场很快开始将前缀为X和Y 的钞票区分开来。

By early 2009 the yield on a ten-year Greek government bond was almost twice that on a comparable German Bund. The spread over Bunds for Italian, Spanish and Irish bonds also widened dramatically before narrowing again more recently. One explanation was that in skittish markets Bunds were prized for their extra liquidity. Another was that the bond-trading arms of bombed-out banks were less willing to make markets in the issues of small countries, such as Greece and Ireland, which left their prices unmoored.

2009年早些时候，希腊政府10年期国债收益率几乎是德国相应国债的两倍。意大利，西班牙和爱尔兰国债间的收益率差距在最近收窄前曾一度急剧扩大。一种 解释是在变幻莫测的市场中人们特别青睐流动性特好的债券。另一种解释是遭受重创的银行债券交易机构不愿意承销象希腊、爱尔兰等小国发行的债券，这使得这些 小国的国债价格下跌。

But at least part of the rise in spreads reflected concern that countries might find it hard to pay back their borrowings. The government bonds of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain were all downgraded a notch by credit-rating agencies. For some, bond spreads are a crude gauge of the risk that the euro will break up. If a euro-zone member were shut out of capital markets and had to default on its debt, it might be tempted to use the opportunity to recreate its own currency and devalue. In that event, creditors could be forced to convert their bonds into claims in a new currency at a discount linked to a new exchange rate against the euro. Default would be one way for countries to free themselves from the euro’s shackles—or, to look at it from the opposite point of view, for the euro zone to rid itself of troublesome members.

但是收益率差距扩大至少部分反映了人们对欧元区一些国家可能很难偿还借款的担忧。希腊、爱尔兰、葡萄牙和西班牙政府的国债评级全部被评级机构降了一级。对 一些人来说，国债收益差是对欧元区分裂风险的粗略估计。如果欧元区的一个成员国被资本市场拒之门外以及他不得不拖欠债务，他很可能趁机重新创造自己的货 币，然后进行贬值。如果那样，债权人将被迫将他们的债券以与新货币对欧元汇率相关联的新货币折价计算求偿权。违约将是这些国家逃脱欧元枷锁的一种方法或者 从相反的角度看，也是欧元区除掉其令人头疼的成员的方法。

A game of consequences
后果游戏

That kind of thinking, however, is found mostly among those who were doubtful that the euro would ever get off the ground in the first place. It is rare in countries seen as candidates for exit. As Eurocrats in Brussels are keen to stress, far from breaking up, the euro zone is growing. Since its launch it has taken on five new members, and more are queuing to join.

然而，那种想法主要集中在那些一开始就对欧元能否顺利实施的国家。现在还没有国家准备退出。布鲁塞尔的欧共体官员热衷于强调，欧元区正在扩大，远没有分裂。欧元启动以来已新增了五个成员，还有更多的国家正排队准备加入。

The costs of backing out of the euro are hard to calculate but would certainly be heavy. The mere whiff of devaluation would cause a bank run: people would scramble to deposit their euros with foreign banks to avoid forced conversion to the new, weaker currency. Bondholders would shun the debt of the departing country, and funding of budget deficits and maturing debt would be suspended.

中途退出欧元区的成本很难准确计算但是这个代价必然很沉重。仅仅一阵贬值将会引起银行挤兑：人们会争先将他们的欧元存入外国银行从而避免被迫转换为新的弱势货币。债券持有者将会极力避免可能会退出欧元区国家发行的债券，预算赤字的融资以及到期债务将会被延期。

Changing all contracts in euros—bonds, mortgages, bank deposits, wage deals and so on—to the new currency would be a logistical nightmare. The changeover to the euro was planned in detail and the exchange rate was fixed in advance, in co-operation with all the euro members. The reverse operation would be nothing like as orderly, not least because the exchange rate would be a moving target.

将债券、抵押贷款、银行存款和劳动合同等所有以欧元表示的合同转化为以新货币表示的合同将是一个后勤上的恶梦。各成员国货币统一为欧元时是经过详细计划的，汇率是同所有成员国合作提前固定的。反向操作不太可能有条理，有序进行，特别是因为汇率将会是一个不断变化的目标。

If businesses converted their debts to a weaker currency, that might constitute default and trigger legal challenges. If they stuck to their covenants, they would have to service their euro debts from earnings in a weaker currency. That would hurt firms which rely mostly on profits from their domestic market. The convulsions would be felt by other euro-area members too. The writedown of the departing country’s government bonds might threaten the solvency of banks in the rest of the euro zone. Around half of Italian government bonds, for instance, are held outside Italy. Other euro-area members could suffer contagion as markets bet on further defaults.

如果企业将他们的债务转化成以弱势货币计价，那将会引发一些违约现象并且引起法律上的挑战。如果他们按照原来的以欧元计价的合同，他们不得不用以弱势货币 计价的营业收入去偿还他们的欧元债务。那将对严重依赖国内市场的公司造成伤害。欧元区其他成员国也将感受到震荡。对要离开国政府债券的价值减计将会影响到 欧元区其他地区的银行的偿付能力。例如，约一半的意大利政府国债被国外的投资者持有。随着市场预期违约风险的加剧，欧元区其他成员国将会受到严重影响。

If the act of leaving would be hard, the aftermath might be even harder. A country that forced bondholders to take a loss would be punished. Continued access to bond markets would come at a high price. Investors would ask for a huge premium to cover the risk of further default. On that count alone, borrowing costs would be far higher than they were within the safer confines of the euro area.

如果说退出欧元区本身就困难重重，其影响可能会更严重。那些迫使债券持有者承担损失的国家将受到惩罚。再次进入债券市场的代价将会非常大。投资者会要求更高的溢价来弥补进一步加大的违约风险。仅这一点就会使得借款成本远远高于他们待在更安全的欧元区。

Investors would have to protect themselves from two further risks: exchange-rate volatility and inflation. A former euro member would have to reinvent its own monetary policy and would struggle to convince investors that it could keep a lid on inflation. One of the euro’s big attractions was that it offered many countries a shortcut to a credible monetary set-up. Devaluation could itself trigger a wage-price spiral. For high-debt countries, such as Greece and Italy, the interest rates demanded by markets to insure themselves against such risks would be ruinous.

投资者将不得不保护自己免受汇率波动和通货膨胀的风险。之前的欧元区成员国将不得不重新采用自己的货币政策并且努力使投资者相信他可以控制通货膨胀。欧元 最大的魅力之一是它为很多国家提供了一个实现有公信力的货币政策的捷径。贬值本身将引发工资-价格螺旋。对象希腊和意大利等高负债国家，市场投资者为确保 自身免受此类风险而要求的利率将会太高，且是破坏性的。

And even though the costs are likely to be heavy, the immediate benefits might prove only transitory. A devaluation is a proxy for a national pay cut: it helps exporters but makes consumers of imports poorer. Workforces would put up strong resistance to being paid in a weaker currency. In countries such as Greece and Ireland, whose exports contain a lot of imports, a devaluation would push up inflation. And where a large proportion of wage contracts is indexed to prices, as in Spain, higher inflation would rapidly work its way through to wages.

即使成本很可能很高，但最直接的好处却可能很短暂。贬值可以减少国民支出：它对出口商有利，但是对进口商品的消费者不利。劳动者将会强力组织反对以弱势货 币来支付薪酬。象希腊和爱尔兰等出口产品中进口大部分原料的国家，贬值会推高通货膨胀。在大部分工资合同根据物价进行调整的国家，例如西班牙，高通胀会很 快通过就会导致工资上涨。

The wrong cure
错误处方

An exit from the euro would not tackle weak productivity growth and inflexible wages, which are the root causes of low competitiveness. In time, further devaluations might be needed. Countries with high debts and a history of poor macroeconomic management would be most tempted to leave. But these are also the countries most likely to be hurt.

退出欧元区不会解决疲软的产出增长和刚性工资等导致经济低竞争力的根源问题。最终，欧元区可能需要进一步进行贬值。那些高负债以及宏观经济管理一直较差的国家将最有可能退出。但是这些国家也最可能受到伤害的。

A more plausible, though still unlikely, scenario would involve a breakaway by a group of low-debt and cost-competitive countries, centred around Germany. Members of a new, “hard” European currency would leave behind a stock of depreciating euro debt and might be rewarded by lower borrowing costs on debt issues in the new currency. Yet a large part of the appeal to Germany of the single currency has been that it rules out revaluations and rewards its firms for being competitive. Germany, France and the rest have too much invested in the success of the EU and the euro to put it at risk. As Daniel Gros of the Centre for European Policy Studies, a Brussels think-tank, puts it: “The weak can’t leave and the strong won’t leave.”

一个更合理但可能性较小的情景是以德国为中心的低负债和具有成本优势的一批国家集体退出。新的硬欧洲通货的成员将面对一些贬值的欧元债务并且采用新货币的 好处是债务的借贷成本将减少。但是单一货币对德国的魅力很大部分在于它排除了货币升值的可能性并且国内公司将因其竞争力而获利。德国、法国和其他国家对欧 盟的成功付出很多，欧元却将它置于危险境地。布鲁塞尔智囊团－欧洲政策研究中心的Daniel Gros说：“弱国不能离开并且强国不会离开 ”。

Lexington
The underworked American
偷懒的美国人
Jun 11th 2009
2009年6月11日
From The Economist print edition
译自经济学人印刷版
Children are exceptions to the country’s work ethic
孩子们是美国工作伦理的例外



AMERICANS like to think of themselves as martyrs to work. They delight in telling stories about their punishing hours, snatched holidays and ever-intrusive BlackBerrys. At this time of the year they marvel at the laziness of their European cousins, particularly the French. Did you know that the French take the whole of August off to recover from their 35-hour work weeks? Have you heard that they are so addicted to their holidays that they leave the sick to die and the dead to moulder?

美国人总喜欢自诩自己为工作奉献一切。他们对自己饱受折磨的工作时间、被挤榨的假期以及时不时打扰黑莓手机津津乐道。在今年的这个时候，他们就开始对他们 欧洲特别是法国的表兄弟们的懒散表示惊讶。“你知道吗，法国人是把整个八月份都用来休假，以作为对他们‘每周35小时’工作的疗养？你听说吗，他们沉醉于 假期，而把病的放到死，死的放到腐烂？”

There is an element of exaggeration in this, of course, and not just about French burial habits; studies show that Americans are less Stakhanovite than they think. Still, the average American gets only four weeks of paid leave a year compared with seven for the French and eight for the Germans. In Paris many shops simply close down for August; in Washington, where the weather is sweltering, they remain open, some for 24 hours a day.

这其中当然有一定的夸张成分，不仅仅在于对法国殡葬习惯的曲解，因为研究表明美国人并不如他们所自认的那么斯达汉诺夫式 。不过一般美国人一年只有四周的带薪假期而法国人有七周，德国人有八周。在巴黎，很多商店八月份直接关门；而在华盛顿，尽管天气酷热，商店还是要开门，有 的甚至是24小时营业。

But when it comes to the young the situation is reversed. American children have it easier than most other children in the world, including the supposedly lazy Europeans. They have one of the shortest school years anywhere, a mere 180 days compared with an average of 195 for OECD countries and more than 200 for East Asian countries. German children spend 20 more days in school than American ones, and South Koreans over a month more. Over 12 years, a 15-day deficit means American children lose out on 180 days of school, equivalent to an entire year.

但讲到年轻一代时，情况正好相反。美国小孩比世界上大多数国家包括被他们认为是懒散的欧洲的小孩要来得轻松。他们一学年的上课时间是最少的，仅仅180 天，相比而言经合组织国家平均一学年的上课时间是195天，东亚国家则超过200天。德国小孩比美国小孩多上20天的课，而韩国小孩则超过1个月。按12 年来算，每年少15天意味着美国小孩一共少上180天的课，等于1学年。

American children also have one of the shortest school days, six-and-a-half hours, adding up to 32 hours a week. By contrast, the school week is 37 hours in Luxembourg, 44 in Belgium, 53 in Denmark and 60 in Sweden. On top of that, American children do only about an hour’s-worth of homework a day, a figure that stuns the Japanese and Chinese.

美国小孩每天的上课时间也是最短的，6.5小时，每周总计32小时。相比之下，在卢森堡每周要上37小时课，比利时44小时，丹麦53小时，而瑞典60小时。最厉害的是，美国小孩每天只需做1个小时的家庭作业，这个数字足以让日本和中国的小孩感到震惊。

Americans also divide up their school time oddly. They cram the school day into the morning and early afternoon, and close their schools for three months in the summer. The country that tut-tuts at Europe’s mega-holidays thinks nothing of giving its children such a lazy summer. But the long summer vacation acts like a mental eraser, with the average child reportedly forgetting about a month’s-worth of instruction in many subjects and almost three times that in mathematics. American academics have even invented a term for this phenomenon, “summer learning loss”. This pedagogical understretch is exacerbating social inequalities. Poorer children frequently have no one to look after them in the long hours between the end of the school day and the end of the average working day. They are also particularly prone to learning loss. They fall behind by an average of over two months in their reading. Richer children actually improve their performance.

美国人还用很古怪的方式的分割他们的上课时间。他们把上课时间塞在早上和下午比较靠前的时段，而在夏天则三个月不用上课。这个一直对欧洲人的超级假期颇有 微词的国家却从来没考虑到他们的孩子享受着如此懒散的暑假。但如此的长假却犹如一块记忆的橡皮擦，据说它抹掉了大部分孩子们大多数功课一个月的学习成果， 数学更是差不多高达三倍。美国学术界甚至为这种现象发明了一个名词，“夏季学习损耗”。这种教学张力不足加重了社会不平等。贫困的小孩经常在下课时间和正 常下班时间之间的时间间隔内无人看管。他们也经常更容易产生学习损耗。他们普遍在阅读方面落后两个月的水平。而富裕的小孩则更能提高他们的成绩。

The understretch is also leaving American children ill-equipped to compete. They usually perform poorly in international educational tests, coming behind Asian countries that spend less on education but work their children harder. California’s state universities have to send over a third of their entering class to take remedial courses in English and maths. At least a third of successful PhD students come from abroad.

教学张力不足也使得美国小孩在竞争中显得装备不足。他们通常在国际教育竞赛中表现不佳，落后于教育投入低但对小孩严格要求的亚洲国家。加州的州立大学不得不用他们超过三分之一的入门课程来教英语和数学。至少三分之一的优秀的博士生来自于国外。

A growing number of politicians from both sides of the aisle are waking up to the problem. Barack Obama has urged school administrators to “rethink the school day”, arguing that “we can no longer afford an academic calendar designed for when America was a nation of farmers who needed their children at home ploughing the land at the end of each day.” Newt Gingrich has trumpeted a documentary arguing that Chinese and Indian children are much more academic than American ones.

越来越多来自两党的政治家们都开始意识到这一问题。奥巴马要求学校管理者们“对上课时间重新规划”，他说“我们不能再放任一个按照美国还处于农夫们需要小 孩下课后回去帮忙耕田的年代制定的课时安排表了”。纽特•金瑞茨则用文档宣称说中国和印度的小孩的教育水平越来越超过美国了。

These politicians have no shortage of evidence that America’s poor educational performance is weakening its economy. A recent report from McKinsey, a management consultancy, argues that the lagging performance of the country’s school pupils, particularly its poor and minority children, has wreaked more devastation on the economy than the current recession.

这些政治家们找出大量的证据证明美国糟糕的教育水平正削弱其经济实力。最近一份来自管理咨询公司麦肯锡的报告称，该国学生落后的学业比当前的衰退对经济发展的破坏更大。

Learning the lesson
吸取教训

A growing number of schools are already doing what Mr Obama urges, and experimenting with lengthening the school day. About 1,000 of the country’s 90,000 schools have broken the shackles of the regular school day. In particular, charter schools in the Knowledge is Power Programme (KIPP) start the school day at 7.30am and end at 5pm, hold classes on some Saturdays and teach for a couple of weeks in the summer. All in all, KIPP students get about 60% more class time than their peers and routinely score better in tests.

越来越多的学校开始按奥巴马要求的那样去做了，并且加长每天上课时间。该国90000多所学校中的大约1000多所已打破以往学期制度的限制。特别地，参 加“知识就是力量项目”（KIPP）的特许学校早上7：30开始，下午5点结束，有时周六也上课，并在夏季也上几个星期的课。总的来说，KIPP学生比他 们同样学龄的孩子们学时多出大约60%而在竞赛中的成绩也要来的好。

Still, American schoolchildren are unlikely to end up working as hard as the French, let alone the South Koreans, any time soon. There are institutional reasons for this. The federal government has only a limited influence over the school system. Powerful interest groups, most notably the teachers’ unions, but also the summer-camp industry, have a vested interest in the status quo. But reformers are also up against powerful cultural forces.

美国学生们还没办法在短期内像法国学生那么努力，更别说像韩国学生。这有其制度原因。联邦政府对学校体制的影响力是有限的。强有力的利益集团，尤其是教师工会和夏令营产业，对现有体制都有其既得利益。此外，改革者们还要面对很强的文化阻力。

One is sentimentality; the archetypical American child is Huckleberry Finn, who had little taste for formal education. Another is complacency. American parents have led grass-root protests against attempts to extend the school year into August or July, or to increase the amount of homework their little darlings have to do. They still find it hard to believe that all those Chinese students, beavering away at their books, will steal their children’s jobs. But Huckleberry Finn was published in 1884. And brain work is going the way of manual work, to whoever will provide the best value for money. The next time Americans make a joke about the Europeans and their taste for la dolce vita, they ought to take a look a bit closer to home.

一方面原因在于情感；美国小孩都是哈克贝里•费恩型的，他们对正规的教育不感冒。另一方面原因在于自满。美国父母们开展了草根抗议行动抵制把学期延长至七 月或八月，或者增加他们的小宝贝们需要做的家庭作业。他们不相信那些埋头苦读的中国学生能够抢走他们孩子的饭碗。但是哈克贝里•费恩是1884年的小说形 象了。而脑力活和体力活一样，仅属于更值得所付工资的人。下次美国人再嘲笑欧洲人和他们的“甜蜜生活”的时候，他们应该更关注一些他们自己的家里了。