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  • 中国IPO:黑暗时刻

    2007-12-08

    [2007.12.08] Peaking

    Chinese IPOs

    Peaking中国IPO达到高峰
    Dec 6th 2007 | HONG KONG
    From The Economist print edition

    Darker days for new listings on China's stockmarkets
    中国股市新上市股票的黑暗时刻

                                                 Illustration by Satoshi Kambayashi


    BY NORMAL standards, investors in Chinese shares ought to be ecstatic. Over the past 12 months prices on the Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have leapt by 45%, 83% and 132% respectively. This remarkable performance has been propelled by a convoy of new offerings—some genuine stockmarket debuts, others selling mainland investors the shares of companies already listed elsewhere. In 2007 about $90 billion will be raised from these initial public offerings (IPOs) in China, almost as much as in New York and London combined. A vast pool of liquidity has been created even as the rest of the world has become parched. Yet the mood is darkening.
    按照常规，投资中国股的股民应该兴高采烈才对。在过去12个月里，香港，上海及深圳的股价分别增长了45%，83%及132%。这种异乎寻常的股市推动了 大批新股上市--其中一些是新上市，另外一些则是将已在海外上市的公司股票卖给中国股民。2007年，在中国股市中通过IPO筹集了大约900亿美金资 金，这相当于纽约及伦敦股市筹集资金的总和。大量的流动资金被创造出来，而世界上其他地方却资金短缺。但是这种情况已经转坏。

    Of the 15 largest offerings to have debuted on the mainland exchanges this year, the share prices of eight are below their first-day close. The most vivid example of the market's gloom was once the most vivid example of its elation. PetroChina, an energy producer, became the most valuable company in the world when its shares more than doubled on its November 5th debut in Shanghai. Since then, its shares have dropped in value by a third and PetroChina has become shorthand for a sucker's trade among angry Chinese punters. More recently, Sinotruk and Sinotrans Shipping also fell below their opening prices on the day of listing, shocking retail investors who had fought for shares in the certain knowledge that every offering could only go up.
    今年，在中国大陆发行的15家最大的新股中，有8个股价低于其交易首日的价格。最能表现股市悲观的是那些曾经的英雄。中石油这个能源大户，当11月5日在 上海上市时翻番后变成了世界上市值最高的公司。但从那时起，其股价已经下降了三分之一，在中国愤怒的下注股民中，中石油已经成为输家的代名词了。最近，中 国重汽及中外运航运股价在上市当天就低于开盘价，使那些认为每个新上市股都会上升，而争先恐后争抢新股的股民跌破眼镜。

    Burned by such failures, potential buyers on the secondary market are becoming less willing to take shares off “stock flippers”, speculators who purchase shares in an IPO and sell them as soon as they start trading. China Railway saw its shares rocket by 69% when they listed on December 3rd, but even that spectacular success has not been enough to shake off the gathering disenchantment with new offerings.
    当被烫了后，后续市场的潜在买主也不太愿意接手“黄牛”（即从那些买入IPO股票，并在开始交易时出手的人）手中的股票。中铁股价在12月3日开市时暴涨69%，但即使是这样成功的表现也未能扫去那笼罩在新股发行上的阴云。

    Primary colours基本色

    Analysis by JPMorgan, an investment bank, shows that Hong Kong-listed companies that announce plans to list in mainland China witness an increase in the price of their Hong Kong shares, suggesting that the primary market is still attractive. But once the mainland offering takes place, price movements become random: the secondary market is not a good buy. If the after-listing market for shares dries up and there is no one to flip to, the primary market may evaporate as well.
    大摩公司的分析家表明，当在香港上市的公司宣布回归上市后，其在香港的股价均有上升。这表明在一级市场还是很有吸引力的。但是随着股票在中国国内上市，股价波动就不同了：二级市场不是好股票市场。如果在国内上市后买气不旺，没有机会转手，一级市场的股价也会下跌。

    That leaves lots of companies with a headache. More than 60 Chinese firms in a range of industries are thought to be near enough to issuing shares to have appointed underwriters, prepared documents and begun tentatively to market themselves to investors. Potentially gargantuan mainland offerings by China Mobile, a telecoms company, and CNOOC, another oil firm, are also expected, but not yet in train.
    这是使很多公司头痛的事。目前，有横跨不同行业的60余家中国公司接近上市。他们指定卷商，准备文件，并开始向投资人介绍自己。庞大的电话公司中国移动及石油公司中海油也会在国内上市，但是目前还没有动作。

    Many firms are continuing their marketing, but are having trouble building order-books. Only a few weeks ago, such companies were overwhelmed by investor demand. Now deals are quietly being delayed, to spare clients the embarrassing impression that a potential offering is in anything less than high demand. Xiashun Holdings, an aluminium-foil maker, has formally postponed its offering. There is, says one hedge-fund manager, “massive indigestion.”
    很多公司仍然在进行市场宣传，但是很难找够买家。但仅在几个星期前，投资人还对这些公司信心十足。现在，这些上市计划已经悄悄的推迟了，以便安抚投资人， 避免投资人认为这些上市股票并不是太热门。厦顺铝箔已经正式推迟其上市计划。一个对冲基金管理人员说“目前中国股市消化很不良”。



    A slowdown in IPO activity has been accompanied by a fall in the broader stockmarket indices. The Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges are both 19% below their October highs; the Hong Kong index has dipped by 9%. Admittedly, those are small falls set against the year's gains, but a protracted decline in the Chinese markets will have ripple effects. The Asian operations of many banks and hedge funds have sold “pre-IPO” stakes in a lot of companies. The health of that market will be in doubt if deals fall short of expectations. So too will be the accuracy of the valuations such stakes command on investment firms' balance-sheets. One market participant says they are responsible for large reported profits that could yet turn into write-downs.
    无独有偶，IPO上市减缓是与股市指数下降一起来的。上海及深圳股市与其10月的高点相比，均下降了19%；而香港的指数则下降了9%。应该承认，与今年 股市的上升相比，这下跌幅度是很小的，但是中国股市的持续下降会造成连锁反应。在许多公司回归上市前，银行及对冲基金均售出手中持有。如果新股上市不尽人 意，股市就不太健康。还有，这些头寸的精确价值也是投资公司资产平衡表的重要元素。一名股市操盘说原来报表中的利润现在可能会变成减值。

    More broadly, the Hong Kong and mainland stockmarkets have been a source of liquidity in a credit-crunched world. The money raised on China's capital markets has provided mainland companies with cash for a global shopping spree. Billions of dollars sit idling on the balance-sheets of energy and mining companies (it is this money that fuels the growing speculation that China's steel companies may top BHP Billiton's takeover bid for Rio Tinto, a mining giant). If funding conditions in developed markets stayed tight, China would gain formidable advantages from an IPO market that is healthy enough to provide large amounts of cash.
    更全面的看，香港及中国股市是这个信贷危机世界的唯一流动性源泉。中国股市中筹集的资金为中国公司在世界范围疯狂采购提供了资金。那些能源及矿业公司的资 产平衡表中有几十亿美金闲置（由于这些钱，人们估计中国的钢厂可能会在收购矿业巨头力拓（Rio Tinto）公司案上出价高出必和必托（BHP Billiton））。如果发达国家中仍然资金紧张，中国将从健康的IPO市场中占有巨大优势，并从中得到大量资金。

    Worrywarts will also wonder if a stockmarket slowdown indicates that investors are sceptical about China's ability to escape the effects of financial turbulence elsewhere in the world. But there is an upside to the dampening in demand: namely, that listings now seem likely to undergo closer scrutiny. The trend-bucking success of the China Railway offering may reflect the fact that it is one of the few recent listings to make business sense. China's transportation network is groaning under large and growing demand from its booming factories. Fresh capital will help China Railway to build new capacity.
    那些担忧的人担心，如果中国股市下降，是否显示了投资人对于中国是否能避免世界其他地方金融震荡的影响仍存顾虑。新股需求下降也是件好事：即现在新股上市 时人们会很审慎。中铁成功上市表明这是最近上市公司中最具商业概念的了。中国的交通网负重不堪，日益增加的工厂增加了运量需求。筹集的资金将帮助中铁增加 运力。

    Such logic has been surprisingly rare among recent deals. In a bubble market business plans and elaborate “use of proceeds” sections on offering documents are superfluous. As painful as it may seem, it will be China's good fortune if this sort of detail now becomes an essential ingredient of stockmarket success.
    这种逻辑在最近的新股中是很少见的。在泡沫市场中，商业计划及在招股书中强调“使用筹集到的资金”是至关重要的。这是血的教训。但是这是中国股市的良药，如果这种详细介绍能成为股市成功的基本要素。

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    发表于12:28 | 编辑 | 继续话题 | 转发 | 分享　0

    评论

  • Thank you. But I cannot help noticing a few translation mistakes, like

    ...China would gain formidable advantages from an IPO market that is healthy enough to provide large amounts of cash/如果发达国家中仍然资金紧张，中国将从健康的IPO市场中占有巨大优势，并从中得到大量资金。
    .
    tourist | 发表于2008-03-03 19:08:25 [回复]
  • To admin:
    this is the article,thank you very much. ^^
    http://www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9621719
    BIGSMALL | 发表于2007-12-13 16:07:01 [回复]
  • To Bigsmall: I am sorry ,I can\'t find the article ,would you please show the article(english version) URL?I will translate it as soon as possible
    admin | 发表于2007-12-12 19:00:37 [回复]
  • HI, you write very well.
    Can you translate the article of Aug 11th (The road to recovery)?
    I can\'t find anyone, please.
    BIGSMALL | 发表于2007-12-11 23:15:31 [回复]