《The Economist》《经济学人》中文版

[2007.10.28]High-flyer

Singapore's economy
新加坡经济

High-flyer
翱翔

Oct 25th 2007 | SINGAPORE
From The Economist print edition

Booming, bustling and bursting at the seams
经济繁荣，人口激涨



THE strong global economic tide has lifted the boats of most South-East Asian countries, but perhaps the most impressive performer is Singapore. Its national income per head is already higher than Spain's and New Zealand's, and five times that of its nearest neighbour, Malaysia. Yet in the year to the third quarter, its economy grew by 9.4%. Singapore is “a developed country that grows at developing-country rates,” as Robert Prior-Wandesforde, an economist at HSBC, puts it. Since the 1997 Asian crisis it has fared markedly better than its rival, Hong Kong (see chart).
全球经济的汹涌浪潮带动了诸多南亚国家，但是最为抢眼的还是新加坡。其国民人均收入已经超越了西班牙和新西兰，是其近邻马来西亚的5倍之多。今年第三季 度，新加坡的经济增长率更是攀升到9.4%。诚如汇丰银行的经济学家罗伯特普里奥万德斯福德(Robert Prior-Wandesforde)所言：“新加坡属于发达国家，但却拥有发展中国家的经济发展速度。”经受了1997年亚洲金融危机之后，新加坡显然 比它的对手——香港要发展得好一些。

The signs of a boom are unmissable. The shopping malls along Orchard Road are bustling. Fancy hotels are full of wealthy tourists despite cranking up their room rates. Marina Bay, by the financial district, is a forest of cranes as a $3.6 billion casino resort goes up. The Singapore Flyer, a giant Ferris wheel, looks down on the vast expanse of building site. Office rents have risen by 50% in the past year, while the price of homes is up by 28%.
新加坡的一派繁荣景象让人不由得为之侧目。乌节路（orchard road）上的大型商场中总是熙熙攘攘，钱袋鼓鼓的观光客不断地刷新着豪华酒店入住率。金融区旁边的滨海湾（Marina Bay）有许许多多的起重机忙碌着，耗资36亿美元的赌场正在拔地而起。新加坡巨大摩天观景轮(The Singapore Flyer)俯瞰着这片广阔的建筑工地。去年写字楼租金的价格上升了50%，而住宅房的价格则上升了28%。

Any downturn in America, which buys a fair chunk of Singapore's exports, is bound to have an effect. But, reckons Mr Prior-Wandesforde, a slackening of foreign demand might be just what Singapore needs to avoid the only danger to its sizzling economy: overheating. Inflation hit a 12-year high of 2.9% in the year to August, though it fell to 2.7% in September.
由于美国是新加坡的主要进口国，因此一旦美国经济出问题，新加坡就会受到影响。但是普里奥万德斯福德认为，新加坡正需要国外需求的放缓来避免“过热”给其繁荣经济带来的危险。今年8月，通货膨胀达到了12年来的最高点——2.9%，不过9月份指数又下降到2.7%.

Singapore has sustained its growth through unusually clean and efficient government, and by having one of the world's best education systems. While Hong Kong has shifted most of its factories to its southern China hinterland, in Singapore manufacturing still accounts for around 25% of GDP. However, anticipating the competitive threat from China, it has moved up the value chain, away from low-end electronics, and found lucrative new niches. Its marine-engineering and biomedical firms are growing at around 40% annually. Its finance industry has cornered the regional market in private banking for the wealthy.
新加坡的持续发展正依赖于其异常廉洁高效的政府以及全球顶尖的教育系统。香港把它的大多数工厂都转移到了大陆的南方，而新加坡的制造业依然在国内生产总值 中占有大约25%的份额。然而出于对来自中国竞争威胁的先知先觉，新加坡提升了价值链，放弃了低端电子产品，找到了有利可图的新市场。造船厂和生物制药公 司以每年40%的速度增长。

Singapore's boom has already sucked in millions of immigrants: new figures show that, as in London, almost one-third of residents were born in other countries. To keep the economy growing and reduce pressure for wage rises, the government is keen to admit more foreigners: its development plans assume the population will grow from 4.7m now to 6.5m in 40-50 years' time, mostly by immigration. Many of the new immigrants come from India and China. They are wowed by Singapore's order and prosperity, notes Sinapan Samydorai of the Think Centre, a think-tank. They also tend to be conservative-minded and thus are likely to embrace Singapore's unique mixture of free-market economics and strait-laced politics.
新加坡的繁荣已经吸引了上百万移民的到来：最新指数表明：新加坡与伦敦一样，有1/3的居民出生地是其他国家。为了保持经济增长和缓解工资上涨的压力，政 府很乐意接受更多的外国人。新加坡发展规划设想在今后的40-50年，人口将由现在的470万增加到650万，这主要是依靠移民。大多数新移民来自中国和 印度。智囊团“思考中心”（Think Centre）的主席西纳潘（Sinapan Samydorai）指出，他们为新加坡的体制和繁荣所折服。他们也尝试着让思想保守起来，这样才有可能迎合新加坡独一无二的自由市场经济与刻板的政治纲 领的混合物。

There have been worries that lower-paid Singaporeans are missing out on the boom. Indeed, until recently, consumer spending was lacklustre. But it has gathered pace in the past few months and, with employment and wages each growing at around 9% annually, there is plenty of domestic spending power to help the economy survive any export downturn.
有担忧认为低收入的新加坡人正在一派欣欣向荣下被渐渐遗忘。的确，最近消费水平低迷，但是在过去的几个月中，它已经赶了上来。并且随着每年就业率和工资以大约9%的速度增长，即使出口减少，国内的消费力也能帮助经济安然度过难关。



Though its Gini coefficient, a measure of income disparity, suggests Singapore is a rather unequal place, there are few visible signs of poverty. Most Singaporeans live in massive, publicly built housing projects that are freshly painted and surrounded by neat, litter-free gardens. No graffiti or menacing youngsters here. Most residents have bought their apartments and are seeing their value soar.
尽管基尼系数（gini coefficient）（一种量定收入差距的方法）暗示新加坡出现了极大的不平等，但在新加坡却几乎看不到贫穷的影子。很多新加坡人住在政府提供的大型 住宅区里——那里房子粉刷一新，被整洁的公园环绕，既没有墙上的“狗皮膏药”，也没有不怀好意的小痞子。很多居民买断了他们的公寓，并看着房子不断升值。

Singapore still has plenty of green space it could build on. But the plan, says Lim Eng Hwee, a senior planning official, is to keep this and find other ways to accommodate the growth in population and new businesses. One is to continue reclaiming land from the sea. Since independence Singapore's land area has grown from under 600 square kilometres (230 square miles) to around 700. Mr Lim says it could be increased to about 760 sq km by closing gaps between Singapore's main island and lesser ones. But this might prompt more envious grumbles from Malaysia and from Indonesia, another close neighbour, which has become reluctant to sell Singapore sand for its reclamation projects. Like Malaysia, Indonesia feigns environmental concerns about them.
新加坡有很多绿地可以用于建设。但一位资深规划官员林英晖（Lim Eng Hwee）说，规划将保留这些绿地，对于人口增长和新建企业的用地则要另寻其他途径加以解决。其中一个办法就是继续填海造陆。自从独立以来，新加坡的国土 面积从不到600平方公里（230 平方哩）增加到现在的700平方公里左右。林先生说通过填补主岛同其他小岛之间的沟壑，新加坡的国土面积有望达到760平方公里。不过这可能会招致马来西 亚和印尼这两个近邻的牢骚满腹。印尼假惺惺地以关乎环境问题为名不卖给新加坡沙石，实际是不想成全它的造陆计划。

If the scope for extending sideways is limited, one solution is to stretch upwards—ever taller skyscrapers are being built, with financial incentives to encourage owners of low-rise apartments to make way for them. But also downwards: Singapore's big oil-storage business, which takes up much land, is being shifted to underground caverns. Roads, which use up 12% of Singapore's land area, will increasingly be put below ground too. Then perhaps concert halls, sports stadiums—who knows? Such schemes are hugely costly but Singapore has massive financial reserves for its size. In creating enough space to continue its breakneck expansion, money will be no object.
如果水平扩展受限，那么向上延伸也是解决办法——通过金钱刺激让低层公寓的业主为建造更高的摩天大楼让路。或者可以向下发展：新加坡的储油厂占地很大，正 在往地下储槽迁移。公路占据新加坡12%的土地，以后会有更多的公路也要被修到地下。然后可能是音乐会大厅，体育场——谁知道呢？这样的计划花费甚巨，但 新加坡厚实的家底还应付得了。在创造足够的空间以继续它快得要命的扩张的路上，钱将不是问题。